The final Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey indicates that Democrat Xavier Becerra is leading the California governor’s race with 28% support. Democrat Tom Steyer follows with 22%, while Republican Steve Hilton has 21%. Republican Chad Bianco has 12%, and Democrats Katie Porter and Matt Mahan each have 5%. Four percent of voters are undecided. When asked to choose among undecided voters, Becerra's support remains at 28%, with Steyer and Hilton both receiving 23%.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, stated that Becerra maintains his frontrunner status ahead of the primary. He noted that Hilton could benefit if Bianco's support decreases, while Steyer needs to mobilize younger voters to remain competitive against Becerra.
Since the previous Emerson poll in mid-May, Becerra's support has increased by nine percentage points, Steyer's by five, Hilton's by four, and Bianco's by one. Support for Porter and Mahan has decreased by five and three points, respectively.
Becerra has strong support among key Democratic groups, with 44% among Democrats, 36% among Hispanics, and 36% among women. Hilton has consolidated 59% of the Republican vote, while 29% support Bianco. Steyer leads among voters under 30 with 36% support.
Approximately 74% of voters indicate they will definitely support their chosen candidate, while 26% may change their minds by Election Day. Among specific candidate supporters, 88% of Hilton and Bianco voters are committed, while 76% of Becerra voters and 74% of Steyer voters are also definite in their support.
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted from May 27-28, 2026, with a sample size of 1,000 likely primary voters and a margin of error of +/- 3%. The data was weighted based on various demographic factors according to U.S. Census parameters.
