High-level delegations from the Fatah movement and Mohammed Dahlan’s Democratic Reform bloc convened in Alamein, Egypt, for reconciliation talks ahead of the upcoming Palestinian legislative elections. The meeting, which took place on Monday and was publicized by Democratic Reform, comes amid discussions among Fatah’s rivals, including Dahlan’s group and Hamas, about forming a coalition that could challenge Fatah in the elections scheduled for November.
The talks were led by PA Vice President Hussein al-Sheikh and Democratic Reform’s deputy leader Samir al-Mashharawi. Al-Mashharawi characterized the atmosphere in Alamein as positive but noted that no practical agreements had been reached. He emphasized the need for PA President Mahmoud Abbas to make decisive decisions to unify the Fatah movement. Democratic Reform consists mainly of former Fatah officials who have separated from the party due to disagreements with Abbas.
Al-Mashharawi stated, “Everyone who was subjected to unjust decisions inside the Fatah movement must have their rights returned,” defending Democratic Reform’s dialogue with other Palestinian factions. Hamas official Husam Badran mentioned that Hamas had recently met with officials from Democratic Reform, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine to form a national bloc for the elections, which would be the first since 2006.
The meeting with Dahlan is significant given the historical opposition between Hamas and Dahlan during his tenure as a powerful Fatah official in Gaza, culminating in the 2007 conflict that resulted in Fatah's expulsion from Gaza. The potential coalition has raised concerns among Fatah’s leadership, prompting the reconciliation talks in Alamein, according to political analyst Ahmed al-Tanani.
Al-Tanani noted that the primary goal of the Fatah delegation was to neutralize Dahlan’s participation in the proposed coalition, which could complicate Abbas’s political calculations. The formation of a coalition would highlight Fatah’s internal divisions, as Democratic Reform is a breakaway faction, and could unite various Palestinian groups against Abbas, who is 90 years old and facing significant opposition.
Gaza-based analyst Eyad al-Qarra suggested that a Dahlan-Hamas electoral coalition would enhance Hamas’s legitimacy if it won, despite its recent announcement to dissolve its Gaza administration. Dahlan could also improve his international standing through such a coalition.
Al-Tanani remarked that the elections present Dahlan with an opportunity to re-establish himself in Palestinian politics, despite his long-term residence in the UAE. He stated that the elections could allow Dahlan to convert his influence into formal political representation.
Analysts have observed Hamas’s pragmatic approach towards Dahlan, recognizing his connections with key international players, including Europe, the UAE, Egypt, and the United States.
Despite the preparations for elections, uncertainties remain regarding their impact on the power dynamics and whether they will occur at all. Al-Tanani highlighted that Abbas retains significant leverage through his authority over electoral decrees and appointments within the Palestinian National Council, which could allow him to undermine any opposition majority that emerges from the elections.
Al-Qarra pointed out that Abbas could postpone the elections if he perceives a real threat from the opposition coalition, as he has done in the past. “If he feels that this [opposition] alliance is a real threat that he will lose, he will cancel the elections or postpone them, and the pretexts and justifications are many,” he stated.