Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure in the Black Sea are disrupting grain and oil exports from the port of Novorossiysk and other key hubs. Recent intensified attacks on Novorossiysk, Russia's largest commercial Black Sea port, have caused significant disruptions to oil and grain shipments. The Russian navy's dominance in the region has diminished, making it increasingly difficult for Russia to export goods via the Black Sea due to these strikes. Experts have indicated that if the attacks persist, the consequences for Russian exporters and the national budget could be substantial.
Novorossiysk has been a major hub for Russian exports since the 19th century and remains the largest port in Russia in terms of cargo volume, handling up to a third of the country's grain exports. Recent Ukrainian drone attacks have severely affected shipments, particularly of grain. Andrei Sisov, head of SovEcon, a research and consulting firm, noted via Telegram that the Novorossiysk Bread Products Plant (NKHP) and the Novorossiysk grain terminal had ceased operations. Additionally, KSK, one of Russia's largest deep-water grain terminals, halted operations, while a major grain terminal in Taman had already stopped functioning by the end of July. Currently, only Tuapse, the smallest of Russia's deep-water grain terminals, remains operational, effectively blocking virtually all Russian grain exports via the Azov-Black Sea basin.
The situation for oil exports is less severe, though they are frequently disrupted. The Sheskharis terminal, Russia's main oil export facility on the Black Sea, which handles approximately 700,000 barrels of crude oil per day, halted loadings on August 14, resuming only two days later. According to Argus Media, Russia could have 45 million metric tons of wheat available for export in 2026 to 2027, but the ongoing situation in the Black Sea complicates the supply to the global market.
Sisov estimated that many Russian producers may not survive the current season due to deteriorating financial conditions. With exports stalled, surplus grain will need to be sold domestically, putting downward pressure on prices. Even if exports recover, challenges remain, particularly as August typically sees peak shipments, and delays could hinder future deliveries.
The escalation of hostilities in the Azov and Black Sea regions is expected to impact the global market, as Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter. Ukrainian grain exports have also sharply declined due to reciprocal attacks. Xiaoyi Deng from Argus Media stated that the disruptions have blocked good wheat harvests in both Ukraine and Russia from reaching the global market, complicating efforts to utilize alternative infrastructure.
According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Novorossiysk loaded 30% less oil than during the same period last year in early August, following a Ukrainian strike on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium marine terminal on July 19. Isaac Levi, an energy analyst at CREA, noted that strikes on vessels have deterred ships from visiting ports considered major targets. A Greek tanker believed to be carrying Russian oil was attacked on August 17.
Levi warned that if these constraints continue through August, Russia may struggle to defer shipments and compensate for lost volumes later. While Russia can reroute barrels, it cannot reroute infrastructure. Alternatives include Baltic ports, but rerouting oil through these ports would significantly increase transportation times and costs compared to Black Sea exports, with available capacity insufficient to replace significant volumes from Novorossiysk.