Sudan's ongoing conflict is exhibiting signs of a changing dynamic as the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) report gains in North Kordofan state, while the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) face defections. Army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is pursuing a political initiative alongside military operations. Recent advances by the army have put pressure on RSF supply lines, while defections raise questions about the RSF's cohesion. Al-Burhan, who also leads the Transitional Sovereignty Council, is attempting to shape a political process from a position of strength.
In late July, the army announced it had retaken several locations in North Kordofan, including Bara, Jabra al-Sheikh, and Umm Sayala, securing the national Exports Road, which connects Khartoum to the western regions. Although these gains do not signify complete control over the Kordofan region, they are significant in terms of military strategy.
The army's control of the Exports Road has intensified pressure on RSF supply lines, and reports indicate that the army is actively working to disrupt these lines as fighting escalates across Kordofan, Darfur, and the Blue Nile region. Concurrently, the RSF is experiencing a notable increase in defections, with approximately 318 individuals, including four officers, joining the army on August 20. Other groups from Kordofan and Khartoum, including 270 individuals and 45 fighters from the Bara area, have also surrendered.
While the defections are noteworthy, they do not necessarily indicate the RSF's collapse. Analysts suggest that the defections may be linked to battlefield developments, internal issues within the RSF, and social dynamics, but caution that this trend alone does not signify a broader breakdown.
Al-Burhan's political initiative, announced on August 15, aims to facilitate a national dialogue with legal and security guarantees for participants. He emphasized that this dialogue would be managed independently, and he has begun engaging with national forces to complete state institutions, including a legislative council. However, he has made it clear that he will not accept a peace agreement that would empower RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.
On August 21, Al Jazeera reported that al-Burhan stated the military campaign would continue until the rebellion is quelled, rejecting any truce that would allow the RSF to regroup. Al-Burhan's approach indicates a dual strategy of maintaining military pressure while pursuing political dialogue.
Malik Agar, deputy chairman of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, reiterated the government's stance, indicating that military resolution is the current option unless substantial conditions for negotiations arise. He stressed that the RSF must withdraw from urban areas before talks can commence, while remaining open to initiatives that support Sudan's unity.
The army's recent territorial gains and the RSF's internal challenges may influence the political landscape in Sudan. Al-Burhan's military strategy could provide the SAF with leverage in future negotiations, while the RSF faces the challenge of maintaining its cohesion amidst battlefield pressures. The evolving military situation may shape the terms of Sudan's next political phase.