U.S.-backed negotiations began in early August 2026 between representatives of Venezuela’s interim government and an opposition delegation led by Dinorah Figuera. Maria Corina Machado, a prominent opposition leader and winner of the 2024 opposition primary, was not included in the negotiations. Delcy Rodriguez, the acting president, comes from the same governing system that Washington is attempting to change. Her brother, Jorge Rodriguez, leads the government delegation in the talks.
The negotiations have resulted in some outcomes, including the release of political prisoners and judicial reforms, with another round of talks scheduled for September. An agreement was also reached to pursue Venezuelan reserve assets held at the Bank of England for reconstruction purposes.
While these developments are seen as positive, they are viewed as relatively minor concessions from a government that retains significant political power. The effectiveness of the Rodriguez government in dismantling the systems that necessitated these concessions remains uncertain.
Figuera's role in the negotiations is significant as she leads the 2015 National Assembly, the last legislature recognized by Washington as freely elected. In contrast, Machado has a strong popular following and has called for the release of political prisoners, restoration of political rights, and a credible election timetable. Her exclusion from the negotiations raises concerns about the legitimacy of the process.
The first cycle of negotiations established working groups to address reconstruction and political institutions, including the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, which has historically restricted political competition. However, reforming a court does not equate to establishing an independent judiciary.
The issue of political prisoners remains contentious, with conflicting reports on the number released. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed the releases, independent organizations indicate that many political prisoners remain incarcerated.
Historical precedents, such as the Doha Agreement and the Paris Peace Accords, illustrate the risks of negotiating with a governing body while sidelining legitimate political opposition. The current negotiations in Venezuela could similarly result in a situation where the existing power structure remains intact.
The Financial Times reported that Maduro and his wife were not mentioned during the negotiations, and Rodriguez has been consolidating her power. While Maduro's diminishing relevance may be seen as a positive development, it does not address the underlying political system.
Washington's strategy appears to focus on negotiating with Rodriguez, who can deliver concessions, while Figuera provides institutional legitimacy. However, Machado's absence complicates the negotiations, as her demands directly challenge the status quo.
The next round of negotiations will focus on judicial reform, restoration of political parties, and electoral restructuring. The outcomes of these discussions will be critical in determining whether the process leads to a genuine democratic transition or merely a managed accommodation.
Washington should evaluate the negotiations based on whether they lead to the restoration of political parties, allow opposition candidates to participate, ensure the safe return of exiles, and establish an independent judiciary and electoral authority. Ultimately, the goal should be to create a binding path to competitive presidential elections.
The current talks may yield agreements, but the true measure of success will be whether they bring about meaningful change in Venezuela's political landscape. A successful negotiation that legitimizes a Rodriguez-led government while maintaining the existing power structure could pose a greater risk to American interests than a failed negotiation.