The Lithuanian government has expressed concerns that the Baltic states may be the next target for Russia, as the country has shifted its economy towards military production. Lithuanian Minister of National Defense Robertas Kaunas stated during a press conference that the Russian economy is now primarily focused on war efforts, raising fears for the security of neighboring countries following the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Kaunas highlighted the potential for Russia to redirect its military capabilities towards the Baltic states after the situation in Ukraine stabilizes. He noted incidents such as airspace incursions and cyberattacks as evidence of a tangible threat from Russia. Experts from the Center for European Policy Analysis have warned for years that Russia's military ambitions could extend beyond Ukraine.
Dmitry Medvedev, former president of Russia, recently warned European nations that they are effectively at war with Russia, urging vigilance among EU citizens. Approximately 40% of Russia's national budget is currently allocated to military expenses, with significant investments in advanced military technologies.
The Baltic states, due to their size and strategic location, are viewed as likely targets for any future Russian aggression. Lithuania's border with Poland, known as the Suwalki Gap, is considered a vulnerable point in NATO's defense perimeter. In response to perceived threats, the Baltic states have increased their defense spending and implemented measures such as building barriers along their borders to prevent unauthorized crossings.
A recent report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies suggests that Russia's military efforts may become unsustainable without transitioning to mandatory conscription, which could lead to significant societal disruptions. The Kremlin, however, continues to frame its actions in Ukraine as a 'special military operation' rather than a war.