Texas has gained over 2.5 million new residents since 2020, significantly impacting the electorate and introducing uncertainty into the upcoming Senate race. Republican candidate Ken Paxton is currently favored to defeat Democrat James Talarico in November, but the influx of new residents and changing Latino support for President Trump may alter traditional voting patterns in Texas.
According to an Axios review of U.S. Census data, Texas added nearly 400,000 residents in 2025, bringing its total population to approximately 31.7 million. This growth is primarily due to people moving from other states or countries, with over two-thirds of the increase attributed to migration.
Political analysts suggest that the new arrivals may not align with Texas' historical political trends, potentially providing Democrats with more persuadable voters. Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, noted that newcomers are often less connected to established political patterns. Mark P. Jones from Rice University categorized new residents into 'economic migrants' and 'political refugees,' each group having different political inclinations.
Data from moving firm HireAHelper indicates that from June 2024 to May 2025, 14% of out-of-state moves to Texas originated from California, 9% from Florida, and 4.5% from Colorado.
The demographic changes are significant, with five of the fastest-growing U.S. cities since 2020 located in Texas. These areas, populated by transplants, represent a new and unpredictable electorate. The traditional Republican stronghold is becoming more volatile as rural, suburban, and Latino voter bases show signs of shifting.
Recent polling indicates that Latino voters are moving away from Trump, with a Texas Public Opinion Research poll showing Talarico leading Paxton by 27 points among Latino voters. Trump's disapproval rating among Latino voters in Texas has risen to 67%, and Democrats currently hold a 54%-to-28% advantage among Latinos in the state.
Despite these trends, historical context suggests caution. No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, and Paxton has previously secured victories in three statewide elections. Analysts warn that Republicans still possess a robust turnout machine, and Democrats have struggled to perform well in urban areas where they need to gain margins.
While Texas is not expected to shift to a Democratic stronghold, the demographic changes and increasing unpredictability may pose challenges for Paxton's campaign.