US energy companies have reported significant profits due to rising oil prices, but their investments in the Gulf region are at risk due to ongoing conflict. Since the war began on February 28, Brent crude prices have increased approximately 22%, from $72 to $88 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil and natural gas, remains largely closed to commercial traffic, although Iran and Oman have established a temporary maritime route. Iran has stated that the strait will not fully reopen until the US meets its commitments under a previous peace deal, leaving security and management issues unresolved.
The ongoing conflict is expected to continue supporting high energy prices while increasing risks for energy companies' regional assets. Rahul Choudhary, vice president of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, indicated that US companies' share of gas supplies from the Gulf is projected to decline by around 40% this year compared to last year, with oil supplies expected to drop by 30-35%.
While higher commodity prices have mitigated some financial impacts, prolonged disruptions may delay major projects and affect future growth plans for US oil and gas companies operating in the region. Chevron has limited exposure to disruptions in the Gulf, with only 5% of its global output coming from the region, reporting a quarterly profit of $12 billion on July 31. In contrast, ExxonMobil is more exposed to disruptions, with the Gulf accounting for 20% of its global upstream supply. Choudhary noted that ExxonMobil's upstream earnings dropped by $1.3 billion in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, although higher commodity prices helped offset this loss.
The Gulf's energy sector is primarily dominated by state-owned companies like Saudi Aramco, ADNOC, and QatarEnergy, while US firms maintain strategic positions through various partnerships and projects. ExxonMobil has significant interests in Qatar's LNG sector and the UAE's Upper Zakum offshore oilfield, while ConocoPhillips is involved in expansion projects in Qatar.
The conflict has led to at least 172 attacks on nonmilitary infrastructure in the Gulf since February 28, with energy facilities being the most affected. The UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain have experienced the highest number of strikes, targeting oil and gas facilities. Notable incidents include attacks on Kuwait's refineries and Saudi Aramco facilities.
Choudhary explained that disruptions to oil and gas facilities are likely to remain a key focus for Iran, as they can exert economic pressure on Gulf states and impact global energy supplies. The attacks on Qatar's LNG infrastructure could have long-term consequences, with repair times for damaged facilities potentially extending to several years.
Looking ahead, while higher prices may support cash flows, ongoing conflict risks could threaten future growth for US companies. Projects like ExxonMobil's $10 billion Upper Zakum and Qatar LNG expansions may face delays. Companies with operations in more stable countries, like Chevron and Occidental Petroleum, may experience less severe impacts.
Oilfield service companies, including SLB, Halliburton, and Baker Hughes, face mixed prospects due to higher logistical costs and supply chain disruptions, although a recovery in operations could drive growth into 2027. The Gulf region presents both opportunities and risks for US energy companies, with the ongoing conflict highlighting the vulnerabilities of operating in a geopolitically unstable area.