Oil is a crucial part of everyday life, refined into fuels that power vehicles, transport goods, and support agriculture. It is also used in the production of various consumer goods. Since the conflict between the US and Israel against Iran began in February 2026, global oil consumption has exceeded production. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are effectively closed to oil shipping, affecting approximately 20% of the world's oil supply. Additionally, strikes on Russian refineries and export bans have exacerbated the situation. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is currently at its lowest level since 1982.
The Depletion Ledger monitors oil supplies, fuel prices, and the impact of shortages on consumers and businesses. As of September 15, the national average price of gasoline has increased from $2.81 in January to $4.33, marking a 54% rise. Diesel prices have seen a more significant increase, reaching $6.27, which is a 68% increase since the last week before the war began. The price of Brent crude oil rose from $76 before the closure to an intraday peak of $126 in March, settling at $108.50 on September 15.
Natural gas prices in Europe, tracked by the TTF benchmark, have also risen significantly, trading above $28 on September 10, which is about 153% higher than pre-closure prices. European gas storage levels have fallen to 48%, compared to a five-year average of 63%. The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivered to Asia reached around $28.50 on September 11, about 167% above pre-closure prices.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) held 415.4 million barrels when the war began and is now reported at 285.4 million barrels as of September 4. The IEA estimates a full-year supply loss of 5.7 million barrels per day, representing about 6% of the world's oil supply. Global oil production fell to 100.1 million barrels per day in August, with significant reductions in Gulf production.
The report outlines three potential scenarios for the future of oil supply and prices, depending on the continuation or resolution of the conflict. The current situation suggests that if the conflict persists, oil prices may remain elevated, and reserve withdrawals could increase.
The next report on oil supply and prices is due on September 16, covering the week ending September 11.