Ethiopia's federal military has stated it is managing increasing tensions in the northern regions with restraint, as concerns rise about the possibility of a new civil war. Army Chief of Staff Field Marshal Berhanu Jula commented on recent military developments, indicating the army's response to provocations from the Tigray front is characterized by 'wisdom and restraint.' He accused Eritrea of funding and supporting armed groups to undermine Ethiopia, referring to the 'Tsimdo' alliance as part of a long-standing pattern of hostile alliances that cannot confront the state without external support.
Eritrea has denied these accusations, expressing concerns that Ethiopia may seek to invade to gain access to the Red Sea. The conflict has expanded from Tigray into the neighboring Afar and Amhara regions following the announcement of an alliance by seven armed groups, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, which aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
Recent battles in Afar have occurred around Abala, where the military is attempting to prevent rebels from taking control. In North Wollo, a zone of Amhara bordering Tigray, the army reported on Thursday that it had killed 272 Tigrayan fighters and wounded 260 during a counter-offensive, indicating significant losses for the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
The TPLF's Tigray Army claimed the federal government has initiated a 'full-scale offensive' involving infantry, mechanized units, and drones. TPLF central committee member Abdisalam Balema stated to Al Jazeera that the situation has escalated into a 'full war.' Fighting has also been reported around Sama, Soqota, and Raya Alamata, with government forces allegedly advancing towards Alamata.
The army command has expressed a preference for a strategy of 'strategic calm' rather than large-scale military confrontation, suggesting that support for the Tigray front is diminishing and its leadership is divided. Reports indicate that internet access was cut across northern Ethiopia on Friday, following UN concerns about the use of drones against civilians in the region.
The renewed conflict poses a significant challenge to the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended a brutal two-year civil war in Tigray, and raises fears of a broader regional conflict involving armed groups from across Ethiopia. This escalation follows the recent lifting of sanctions by Washington on Ethiopia and Eritrea related to past atrocities, with the U.S. stating that the 'national emergency ... has expired.'
During a speech at the UN General Assembly, Ethiopia’s president portrayed the country as a stabilizing force in the region, accusing unnamed external actors of interfering in Ethiopia’s affairs while emphasizing Addis Ababa's role in supporting peace efforts in neighboring Sudan.
Alemayehu Weldemariam, a law professor at Indiana University, criticized the federal government for the breakdown of the Pretoria Agreement, stating, 'This war has been in the making for a while now.' He pointed out that many provisions in the cessation of hostilities were undermined by the federal government, citing restrictions on fuel, services, and cash in Tigray, as well as the failure to establish the promised interim administration. He noted that what was intended to be a temporary arrangement has become permanent, with Tigray excluded from national elections since then.