Early Voting Data Indicates Democratic Advantage Ahead of Midterm Elections

Early voting has commenced for the November 3 midterm elections, with over 700,000 Americans having voted across at least 30 states as of October 1, 2026. Data suggests that Democrats are showing a stronger motivation to vote compared to previous elections. In Iowa, 67% of ballot requests have been made by Democrats, an increase from 54% at the same point in 2024. Pennsylvania shows 66% of requests from Democrats, up from 62%, and Maine reports 57%, up from 53%. In North Carolina, 42% of ballot requests are from Democrats, compared to 36% two years ago. However, in all states except Iowa, Democratic ballot requests were higher at this point in 2022 than they are now. This trend aligns with polling and special election results indicating increased Democratic motivation for the upcoming elections. Conversely, it may also reflect a shift among Republicans toward different voting methods. It is important to note that while voting is public information, the specifics of how individuals voted remain confidential, and the actual election outcomes will not be known until after the polls close. Early voting data typically represents an older demographic, as voters aged 65 and older have increasingly opted for mail-in voting, rising from 27% in 2020 to 37% in 2024. This trend appears to be continuing this year, with older voters making up a larger share of ballot requests compared to previous elections. Virginia has reported the highest total votes so far, with a notable Democratic advantage in early voting. Localities that heavily supported Kamala Harris in 2024 have seen 78% of their turnout from this time, while those that supported Donald Trump are at 61%. Despite the current Democratic advantage, Republican voter turnout may increase as Election Day approaches, particularly in competitive races. Early voting data, while informative, has limitations, as it represents only a fraction of total expected votes and is largely focused on mail ballots at this stage.