Fox News Poll Shows Tight Race Between Talarico and Paxton for Texas Senate Seat

<p>Weeks before Election Day, a Fox News Poll indicates that Democrat James Talarico has a slight edge over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for the U.S. Senate seat from Texas. The poll, released on October 1, 2026, suggests a close contest.</p><p>Talarico has a net positive personal rating of 8 points (52% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable), while Paxton’s rating is negative by 18 points (40% favorable vs. 58% unfavorable). Republicans are reportedly six times more likely to view Paxton unfavorably (32%) compared to Democrats viewing Talarico unfavorably (5%).</p><p>The poll also reveals an enthusiasm gap among Republicans, with more MAGA Republicans expressing strong interest in the midterms (64%) compared to non-MAGA Republicans (50%). Among Democrats, two-thirds of both DSA and non-DSA members are extremely interested in the election.</p><p>Overall, Texas likely voters are nearly split on Senate control: 49% prefer a Democratic Senate while 50% favor a Republican Senate. Notably, 8% of self-identified Republicans prefer Democratic control, while only 1% of Democrats prefer Republican control.</p><p>Talarico leads Paxton by 2 points (51-49%) among likely voters, which falls within the margin of sampling error. Among a larger sample of registered voters, Talarico’s lead increases to 7 points, up from a 3-point lead in July.</p><p>Non-MAGA Republicans are more likely to support Talarico than their MAGA counterparts (22% to 4%), reflecting divisions from the GOP primary. Approximately 20% of likely voters who supported Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the March primary also back Talarico.</p><p>Support for Talarico is strong among DSA Democrats (100%) and non-DSA Democrats (98%), with 89% of Talarico supporters certain of their choice compared to 85% of Paxton supporters. Talarico also has significant backing from Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%), and voters under 35 (62%).</p><p>Paxton’s strongest support comes from White evangelical Christians (74%), White men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%), and voters aged 65 and over (55%).</p><p>Both candidates face concerns about their ideologies, with 53% of voters worried Talarico is too liberal and 51% concerned Paxton is too aligned with President Trump.</p><p>In the 2024 election, President Trump won Texas by nearly 14 percentage points, but his current job approval rating is negative at 44% approval vs. 55% disapproval. Among those disapproving of Trump, 15% still support Paxton, while 9% of Trump supporters back Talarico.</p><p>Economic issues are a significant concern for voters, with 70% indicating that the cost of living will be extremely important in their Senate vote. Voters falling behind financially support Talarico by 32 points, while those feeling financially secure favor Paxton by 48 points. The largest group, those holding steady, narrowly back Paxton by 3 points.</p><p>Nearly half of voters consider Trump (48%) and immigration (47%) as extremely important to their vote, while one-third feel the same about artificial intelligence technology (34%). Talarico leads among voters prioritizing the cost of living (+19), artificial intelligence (+18), and Trump (+6), while immigration-focused voters favor Paxton (+20).</p><p>In the governor’s race, incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a 52%-47% advantage over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, with 52% of voters approving of Abbott's job performance. Abbott has slightly higher support among men, Republicans, and moderates compared to Paxton.</p><p>Abbott also benefits from crossover support, with 10% of Talarico supporters backing him for governor, while only 3% of Paxton supporters back Hinojosa.</p><p>Republican pollster Daron Shaw noted that the turnout of Republican voters without Trump on the ballot is a key factor in the election's outcome, suggesting that Abbott's efforts may significantly influence Paxton's political future.</p><p><i>The poll was conducted from September 24-28, 2026, by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, involving 1,203 Texas registered voters. The margin of sampling error is ±2.5 percentage points for registered voters and ±3 percentage points for likely voters.</i></p>