Severe Thunderstorms Increasing Risk to U.S. Energy Infrastructure

<p>Hurricanes have traditionally been the focus of efforts to enhance the resilience of the power system to extreme weather. However, the expansion of energy infrastructure in the United States is increasingly facing risks from severe thunderstorms.</p><p><strong>Importance:</strong> New energy infrastructure and data centers are being constructed in areas susceptible to severe weather, which raises the potential for losses for both developers and insurers when storms occur.</p><hr /><p><strong>Current Situation:</strong> Severe thunderstorms are responsible for 40% of modeled global insured catastrophe risk, compared to 27% attributed to hurricanes, according to an analysis by risk analytics firm Verisk.</p><ul><li>The United States accounts for $117 billion, or 68%, of Verisk's modeled global insured catastrophe losses.</li></ul><p><strong>Threat Assessment:</strong> A warmer atmosphere can retain more moisture, potentially leading to conditions that favor powerful thunderstorms. However, the impact of climate change on severe storms is complex.</p><ul><li>Harold Brooks, a research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, indicated that other atmospheric conditions necessary for severe storms might become less favorable as global temperatures rise.</li></ul><p><strong>Analysis:</strong> Jay Guin from Verisk stated that increasing exposure, rather than climate change, is the primary factor driving the rise in insured losses, as more valuable properties are built in vulnerable areas.</p><ul><li>Guin noted that while climate change plays a role, the expansion of development and rising reconstruction costs are more significant contributors.</li></ul><p><strong>Focus Areas:</strong> The evolving energy system in the U.S. is generating new types of exposure.</p><ul><li>Verisk is evaluating risks to renewable energy projects located in regions prone to tornadoes and hail, where large hail can significantly damage solar farms.</li><li>Guin remarked that although these projects are renewable, they represent a new asset class that is quite susceptible to damage.</li><li>Developers of data centers must weigh the risks of natural hazards against the availability of land, power, and water. Some sites contain billions of dollars in property and equipment, increasing the importance of site selection and engineering.</li></ul><p><strong>Current Trends:</strong> Tornado activity has risen by approximately 10% in the Mid-South, while it has decreased by a similar percentage in regions from the Texas Panhandle through western Kansas, according to Brooks.</p><ul><li>Population densities in rural areas of the Southeast are about 100 times greater than those in the High Plains.</li><li>Brooks noted that there are about 10 people per square kilometer in rural areas of northern Mississippi and Alabama, making it likely for tornadoes to impact buildings and individuals.</li></ul><p><strong>Wider Implications:</strong> Brooks highlighted that the most significant concern related to thunderstorms for infrastructure is flooding.</p><ul><li>He stated that heavy rainfall and flooding pose a substantial threat to nearly all infrastructure.</li></ul><p><strong>Conclusion:</strong> Guin emphasized that there is no completely safe climate zone.</p>