<p class="wp-block-paragraph">On February 29, 2008, Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton first aired her famous “3 a.m.” campaign ad. Her Senate colleague Barack Obama had breakout momentum, which Clinton sought to counter. Obama had served on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee but missed nearly half of its votes. Clinton’s strategy did not succeed, but her ad remains notable.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Currently, Democrats are focusing their campaign on opposition to President Donald Trump and Israel. While this approach may be politically effective, it prioritizes rhetoric over policy. If the Democrats intend to take on the responsibilities of governance and manage global crises, they need to show leadership. Issues involving Ukraine, Iran, China, and Cuba require detailed positions and nuanced plans from candidates. Questions arise regarding U.S. responses if Russia employs tactical nuclear weapons or if Iran continues to disrupt freedom of navigation. The extent of U.S. support for Taiwan in the event of a blockade or invasion is also uncertain. Additionally, should Cuba face collapse, the U.S. response remains unclear.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The situation in Ethiopia is increasingly concerning, as war has resumed in the northern region. Unlike the Tigray war from 2020 to 2022, the current conflict involves Eritrean troops fighting against the Ethiopian central government. Neighboring countries such as Somalia, Sudan, and Egypt may escalate the conflict into a regional war.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) provides critical insights into emerging crises, especially as Western embassies reduce their presence. Ethiopia currently hosts over 1 million refugees and asylum-seekers from Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea, in addition to internal displacement. Ongoing conflicts in the north and localized tensions have displaced millions more. According to UNHCR, 60% of the refugees are children, with armed groups in Tigray reportedly recruiting underage refugees. As U.S. funding cuts impact support for UNHCR programs in Ethiopia, Sudanese and South Sudanese militias are also attempting to recruit the newly displaced. UNHCR-Ethiopia has reduced its operational footprint to 10 offices in a country that is 60% larger than Texas and anticipates further reductions in the coming year.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Wider conflict in the Horn of Africa could lead to famine and further displacement along the Red Sea, particularly as the Houthis destabilize the Bab el Mandeb trade route. The situation may worsen, with open warfare between Egypt and Ethiopia potentially leading to Egypt’s collapse and instability in the Mediterranean region. Increased refugee flows could contribute to terrorism and cartel recruitment across the Middle East and Europe, while piracy in the Red Sea may rise, significantly increasing shipping costs and exacerbating food inflation.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While isolationism may be popular in some political circles in Washington, neglecting Africa and cutting refugee program funding can lead to higher costs in the long run.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Political rhetoric may drive campaigns, but it does not cultivate leadership. It is essential for responsible Republicans and Democrats to engage in discussions about future strategies to prevent or mitigate conflicts that could be more challenging than the situation in Ukraine. Efforts to keep refugees in their home regions could be an important starting point.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>Michael Rubin is director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum, a distinguished fellow at India’s Usanas Foundation, and a contributor to Beltway Confidential.</em></p>