Trump's Efforts to Reduce Fuel Costs Ahead of Midterm Elections

Prices for gasoline and diesel have more than doubled since the US-Israel conflict with Iran began in February 2026, impacting transport businesses, farmers, and drivers in the United States. Ahead of the midterm elections, there have been increasing calls for action to lower fuel prices, with US President Donald Trump making several comments and announcements aimed at reducing costs. Trump's announcement of a waiver on the use of red dye diesel at a campaign stop this week highlighted the significance of gas prices in an election focused on affordability issues. Public concern over rising costs of fuel, food, and other goods is widespread, and voters have linked this issue to Trump and his party, potentially affecting Republican candidates in November. Polls indicate that a majority of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy and the conflict in Iran, which has contributed to elevated diesel and gas prices in the US. Global oil supplies have been restricted since the conflict in the Middle East disrupted the usual flow of oil and refined products through the Strait of Hormuz. Although the flow of crude oil is nearly back to pre-war levels, prices remain above $100 per barrel, with sustained high oil prices affecting diesel and gasoline costs. David Ruisard, pricing manager for commodities intelligence firm Argus, stated that the ongoing war in Ukraine has also impacted oil supplies, contributing to higher fuel prices. Ruisard estimates that the price increase from about $3 per gallon to $6 per gallon for diesel is 60% connected to the Strait of Hormuz and 40% connected to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Higher energy prices are responsible for much of the inflation increase this year, according to Michael Pearce, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, which is also pushing up interest rates. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for fuel price tracking website GasBuddy, noted modest declines in gasoline and diesel prices recently, attributing some of this to actions taken by the Trump administration. Trump announced that he would allow red dye diesel, which is used off-road and does not face federal taxes, to be used on US highways without federal levies. Ruisard explained that the only difference between the diesel used by truck drivers and everyday consumers and the tax-free red dye diesel is the dye itself. He cautioned that using dyed diesel could lead to fines for trucking companies once the temporary tax relief ends. Additionally, Ruisard mentioned that expanding the use of red dye diesel could deplete available supplies for businesses that typically reserve it. Another action by Trump that has garnered more positive feedback from analysts is the G7 countries' announcement to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from stockpiles to alleviate supply concerns, a move made following Trump's pressure. De Haan stated that this announcement has contributed to some price decreases. However, Pearce warned that this release is only a temporary fix, as ongoing disruptions in energy exports from the Gulf will require further stock drainage to meet market demand. Earlier this week, Trump mentioned he was "thinking about" suspending the federal tax on gasoline. De Haan noted that the president has urged states to reduce their gasoline taxes, with some states, including Ohio and Georgia, already implementing cuts. State taxes contribute moderately to consumer prices at the pump, and these reductions have helped lower national averages. However, suspending or reducing the federal gasoline levy would require Congressional cooperation, which may be challenging ahead of the midterm elections. De Haan estimated that Indiana's gasoline tax cut in May has cost the state government $1 billion in lost revenue. Trump has also supported calls for a ban on diesel exports from the US, which could provide partial relief in the Gulf and Midwest but would offer little benefit to the Northeast and West Coast. Pearce noted that this policy could lead to stockpiling of diesel and necessitate refinery production cuts, raising prices for other energy products, including gasoline. De Haan concluded that Trump has utilized all available options, yet prices remain high. He stated that a meaningful reduction in gas prices would require resolving the geopolitical tensions causing these high prices, specifically reaching agreements with Iran and facilitating a resolution between Ukraine and Russia—issues beyond the direct control of the White House. Even if these conflicts are resolved, Ruisard warned that damage to facilities in the Middle East from military strikes could delay production normalization for four to six months. He emphasized that high prices are likely to persist for some time, regardless of the president's negotiations.