Analysts indicate that Hezbollah’s decision on October 8, 2023, to join a support war for Gaza altered Lebanon’s political landscape. Following the October 7 attack on Israel and the onset of military actions in Gaza, Hezbollah declared its support for the Palestinian people, a move that analysts believe has significantly influenced Lebanese politics.
Experts suggest that Hezbollah miscalculated Israel’s intelligence capabilities leading up to the conflict, which later resulted in the September 2024 pager attack and the assassination of much of Hezbollah’s leadership, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Nicholas Blanford, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, stated, “Hezbollah got sucked into a vortex which culminated in the decapitation of their leadership and the invasion of south Lebanon.” This situation has diminished Hezbollah's political standing and contributed to the election of Joseph Aoun as president, leading to a new government that adopted a firmer stance against the group.
Hezbollah, representing Lebanon’s large Shia community, was previously the dominant political and military force in the country, with significant influence across the region. The group was a crucial ally of the al-Assad regime in Syria and maintained connections with allies in Iraq and Yemen. Prior to October 7, Hezbollah wielded considerable electoral power in Lebanon, often influencing government formation and suppressing opposition movements.
In the months leading up to the October 2023 conflict, Hezbollah displayed confidence through military parades and preparations in southern Lebanon. The decision to engage in the conflict against Israel, termed the War of Support, was made on October 8, 2023.
Political analyst Jad Dilati noted that the events of October 7 triggered a series of developments that Lebanon’s political system was ill-equipped to handle. He remarked that Hezbollah acted unilaterally in opening a support front for Gaza, disregarding governmental consensus and the perspectives of southern Lebanese residents most affected by the conflict.
For the following 11 months, Israel and Hezbollah exchanged attacks, with Israel conducting significantly more strikes against Lebanon. The situation escalated in September 2024 when Israel intensified its military actions, resulting in substantial casualties and leading to the assassination of Nasrallah amid a ceasefire proposal.
Israel invaded southern Lebanon in October 2024, remaining in the country for over two months despite a ceasefire agreement in November. The ceasefire was frequently violated, with Israel reportedly breaching it over 10,000 times. By March 2026, Israel renewed its military operations against Lebanon following Hezbollah’s rocket fire in response to ceasefire violations.
The ongoing conflict has resulted in over 9,000 deaths and displaced more than 1.2 million people in Lebanon. The World Bank reported a contraction of over 6 percent in Lebanon’s economy in 2026, estimating recovery and reconstruction needs at around $11 billion.
In previous conflicts, Hezbollah managed to support its community through social welfare, maintaining its popularity. However, since 2024, the Lebanese state has sought to expand its services and is openly pursuing disarmament of Hezbollah, which the group opposes.
Dilati stated that Hezbollah is facing a legitimacy crisis, with some of its traditional support base expressing discontent over the group's alignment with Iranian interests and the consequences of the conflict. Despite growing dissent, analysts assert that Hezbollah remains the primary representative of Lebanon’s Shia Muslims, as it continues to provide for their needs amid a lack of political alternatives.
Blanford emphasized that Hezbollah still possesses military capabilities, and its perceived weakness may be overstated. The group’s future is closely tied to regional developments, particularly the US-Israeli stance towards Iran. The ongoing occupation and the loss of homes and livelihoods may lead to increased criticism of Hezbollah among those affected by the conflict.
SOURCE: Al Jazeera English PUBLISHED: 2026-10-09 05:52:49