<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/in_focus/4705781/machado-two-front-insurgency-for-legitimacy/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Maria Corina Machado</a> and Diosdado Cabello have both expressed a desire for a voting day in Venezuela, raising concerns about the potential outcome of the next election regarding <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/venezuela/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Chavismo</a>.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In an interview with the <a href="https://ca.news.yahoo.com/venezuelas-machado-calls-elections-july-044332420.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><em>Financial Times</em></a> published on October 9, Machado stated that there is “more than enough time” to prepare for a presidential election by July 2027. She emphasized the need for transparency regarding oil proceeds overseen by Washington, noting a shared goal of establishing a stable democracy in Venezuela. Following Nicolás Maduro’s capture, the question remains whether a date for elections will be announced.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Venezuela previously held a vote on July 28, 2024, which was deemed not credible. The National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner without publishing precinct results, while opposition tally sheets indicated Edmundo Gonzalez had won decisively. The Supreme Tribunal of Justice supported the disputed results and had previously upheld Machado’s exclusion from office. Many Venezuelans abroad faced voting obstacles, indicating that while a date was set, the electoral process was compromised.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Cabello, who serves as the minister of Internal Relations, Justice and Peace, oversees the police and internal security apparatus. As secretary-general of the ruling PSUV, he has significant influence over its nationwide organization. The U.S. has offered a <a href="https://eldiario.com/2026/06/17/recompensas-narcotrafico-venezuela/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">$25 million reward</a> for information leading to his arrest or conviction on narcoterrorism charges, yet he has been seen meeting with U.S. officials.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Cabello has also expressed readiness for elections, stating, “If they tell us the elections are tomorrow, let’s hold elections tomorrow.” His confidence appears to stem from control over the institutions surrounding the vote rather than public opinion.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The critical issue is not whether Chavismo will allow an election, but whether it can lose one and relinquish power. The government can manipulate the electoral process through intimidation, candidate restrictions, and registration manipulation.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Acting President Delcy Rodriguez has also promised elections without specifying a date, stating that Venezuelans would determine the timing. Analyst <a href="https://lapatilla.com/2026/09/30/antonio-de-la-cruz-pongan-la-fecha/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Antonio De La Cruz</a> has questioned when Venezuelans will actually vote.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Experts cited by <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-09-25/venezuelas-promised-elections-face-long-delays-sources-say" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Reuters</a> suggest that a credible election could require at least 12 months to appoint reliable electoral authorities and organize the voting process. With July approaching in nine months, the challenges of including millions of Venezuelans abroad and rebuilding registration procedures remain significant.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There is also concern regarding the U.S. approach. Following a meeting between President Donald Trump and Rodriguez, Secretary of State <a href="https://floridapolitics.com/archives/821457-marco-rubio-says-free-and-fair-venezuela-elections-still-priority-as-u-s-meets-with-delcy-rodriguez/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Marco Rubio</a> stated that a successful project would culminate in a free and fair election. However, critics worry that oil production and commercial arrangements may take precedence over democratic reforms.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">While Washington continues to promise elections, a vote conducted under Chavista conditions could fulfill political commitments without transferring power. This scenario could allow Rodriguez to claim international recognition while Cabello retains control over the electoral apparatus.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The opposition faces challenges, including factional disputes and difficulties in maintaining a unified political organization. Even a legitimate victory would pose the question of governance in institutions still influenced by Chavista loyalists.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Machado's advocacy for democratic rights and oil transparency is significant, but she remains politically excluded while those who barred her from power control the necessary institutions for a credible vote.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">To ensure a fair electoral process, Cabello must relinquish control over internal security, and the National Electoral Council must be restructured with independent oversight and international auditing. Opposition candidates should be allowed to compete, and the military and security institutions must accept the results and facilitate a transfer of power.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Washington should condition further recognition and economic concessions on measurable progress in these areas to avoid financing a transition determined by unaddressed institutions.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The political landscape in Venezuela remains complex, with historical precedents demonstrating how quickly political victories can unravel when institutional control is contested. An election held on Chavista terms may not signify the end of Chavismo but could instead reinforce its position.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Machado's inquiries are crucial, but the more pressing question remains: Who will ensure that the election winner can govern effectively?</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A voting day with Cabello still in control may not lead to the end of Chavismo but could instead facilitate its continuation.</p>