A recent poll indicates that the bloc of Zionist parties opposed to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may secure a governing majority for the first time, according to a survey published by Zman Yisrael on Thursday. The anti-Netanyahu bloc is projected to win 62 seats in the 120-member Knesset, surpassing the 61 needed to form a government. In contrast, the pro-Netanyahu bloc is expected to secure 50 seats, while the two mainly Arab parties, Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al, are projected to take 8 seats.
Previous polls had shown the opposition falling short of 60 seats without support from Arab parties, which has been a significant challenge for opposition leaders aiming to establish a “Zionist government” without relying on Arab party support.
The poll provides the following seat totals for individual parties: Likud (23), Together (led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett) (21), Yashar (led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot) (19), Yisrael Beytenu (10), Shas (9), The Democrats (8), United Torah Judaism (8), Otzma Yehudit (6), Ra’am (4), Hadash-Ta’al (4), Religious Zionism (4), and Blue and White (led by Benny Gantz) (4). The Arab party Balad and the Reservists party did not meet the 3.25 percent electoral threshold.
The anti-Netanyahu bloc's increase in projected seats occurs alongside Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party also crossing the threshold with four seats. The survey also shows Eisenkot’s Yashar gaining ground on Bennett’s Together as the largest opposition party, leading to tensions within the anti-Netanyahu camp. Bennett and Lapid have invited Eisenkot to join their alliance, with Lapid reportedly willing to step down to accommodate him, but Eisenkot has declined the offer, preferring to focus on maximizing the overall vote.
Additionally, the poll explored a scenario where the Arab parties unite under a Joint List, which would yield 13 seats for the Arab coalition but reduce the anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc to 59 seats, falling below the majority threshold. Israel is required to hold elections by October 27, although some analysts anticipate an earlier date.
