Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has historically won Republican primaries in South Carolina without facing a runoff. However, a significant portion of undecided voters may challenge this trend in the upcoming primary elections. A recent Citadel poll indicates that 18% of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided, which could result in Graham not securing the majority needed to avoid a runoff against his main challenger, Mark Lynch. The poll shows Graham with 46% support, Lynch with 36%, and 18% undecided.
Graham, who has been in office since 2002, won his last primary in 2020 with over 67% of the vote. He entered the current race as a favorite, bolstered by an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, substantial fundraising, and extensive name recognition. However, his support for U.S. military involvement in Iran has put him at odds with some members of the Republican Party, particularly those favoring isolationism.
Graham has advocated for a hard-line stance on Iran and has encouraged military engagement, stating that the rising costs for consumers due to the conflict are necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. This position has drawn criticism from several Republican challengers, including Lynch, who has adopted an 'America First' platform and accuses Graham of straying from Trump's campaign principles. Lynch has received endorsements from various former officials aligned with the Trump opposition wing of the GOP. Trump has also acknowledged the potential impact of Graham's stance on Iran on his primary performance, participating in a tele-rally to support Graham.