As the 2026 NATO Summit approaches, discussions are underway regarding the potential expansion of nuclear sharing arrangements within NATO to include countries that joined in the last 30 years, such as Lithuania and Poland. Currently, the U.S. has tactical nuclear weapons deployed at bases in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, and the United Kingdom, with ongoing conversations focused on the basing of dual-capable aircraft further east rather than establishing new weapons depots.
Under these arrangements, member states may contribute dual-capable aircraft, such as the F-35 and F-16, which can carry U.S. tactical nuclear bombs. Reports indicate that Poland is procuring 32 F-35 aircraft, and discussions with Lithuania may involve hosting American or German dual-capable aircraft.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas mentioned that while peacetime deployments are not currently being considered, there is a need to utilize NATO's resources in times of crisis. Recent reports follow the U.S. cancellation of a rotational force of 4,000 troops to Eastern Europe, which has raised concerns among allies. Lithuania recently saw a departure of 1,000 U.S. rotational troops without a clear replacement, marking the first gap in rotations since 2020.
Lithuanian officials have received assurances from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth regarding future U.S. rotations, although details remain unclear. The potential removal of American forces or cuts to rotations could incur financial costs for the U.S., while host nations in Europe have expressed willingness to subsidize the presence of U.S. forces.
For Eastern European allies, the presence of U.S. servicemembers acts as a significant deterrent against perceived threats from Russia. While discussions around expanding nuclear sharing are still in early stages, they signal a response to the Kremlin amid a backdrop of U.S. reductions in conventional forces in Europe. Last month, the U.S. announced cuts to forces intended for reinforcement in Europe, which, while largely theoretical for now, are important for NATO's deterrence strategy.
The ongoing dialogue regarding nuclear sharing highlights the growing military investment in Eastern Europe, where NATO members bordering Russia spent an average of 3.61% of GDP on defense last year, compared to 2.49% across the entire alliance. This year, Estonia and Lithuania are set to spend 5.4% of GDP on defense, with Latvia and Poland following closely behind. Despite these efforts, the need for a sustained American military presence remains crucial for effective deterrence.