Analysis shows decline in Trump's support among independents during second term

June 12, 2026 Recent analysis of 21 waves of AP-NORC surveys indicates that President Trump's support among independents has decreased by 17 percentage points since he took office. This decline is particularly notable among independents without a college degree. Republican support has remained stable at around 75%, while Democratic support is approximately 5%. The analysis categorized survey waves into five time periods: the 2024 election and pre-presidency period (July 2024–January 2025); Trump's first 100 days in office (March–May 2025); the period during the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill (June–August 2025); the longest government shutdown in U.S. history (September–December 2025); and January 8–April 20, 2026, which included domestic ICE-enforcement crackdowns and international actions such as the start of the Iran War. Support among independents without a college degree fell from 48% during the election and pre-presidency period to 27% during the Iran War period. College-educated independents showed less fluctuation, with support decreasing from 29% to 24% over the same timeframe. The analysis also revealed a decline in support among independents across different racial groups. Black independent support decreased from 38% to 17% during the One Big Beautiful Bill period, while Hispanic independent support fell from 46% to 15% during the government shutdown period. Notably, Hispanic independent support dropped by 20 percentage points during Trump's first 100 days. Support among independents aged under 60 has decreased since the election, while support among those aged 60 or older has remained stable. Specifically, support among 18-29-year-old independents dropped from 42% to 25%. Both independent men and women showed a decline in support, with around 40% supporting Trump during the election and pre-presidency period, compared to about 25% during the Iran War period. The analysis acknowledges the contributions of Sean Collins and Tafari Torres. A full description of the study methodology and analysis is available on the AP-NORC website.