A national NBC News poll indicates that Democrats have a 5-point lead over Republicans in the race for control of Congress, with 49% of registered voters preferring Democratic control compared to 44% for Republicans. The poll, conducted by More Perfect, a nonprofit organization, surveyed 2,400 registered voters from May 29 to June 7, 2026, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The poll reveals that independents favor Democrats by a 12-point margin, and majorities of Black and Latino voters, voters under 50 years old, and those with a college degree also lean Democratic. In contrast, Republicans maintain an advantage among men, white voters, and those without a college education.
Despite the Democratic lead, Republican pollster Bill McInturff noted that the numbers are not catastrophic for the GOP, as they need to net only three seats to take the House. However, Democrats face a more challenging task in the Senate, needing to gain four seats in states that Trump won by significant margins in 2024.
Trump's approval rating has decreased to 42% among registered voters, with two-thirds of independents disapproving of his performance. The poll also highlights a growing pessimism among voters regarding the direction of the country, with 56% believing that America's best years are behind it. Additionally, nearly 80% of voters feel that the American Dream is harder to achieve now than in previous generations.
The poll shows a decline in confidence in major political institutions, with half of the respondents expressing little to no confidence in the federal government and 58% feeling the same about Congress.