Oil prices decreased on June 15, 2026, following a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, which aims to alleviate global energy supply disruptions that have caused rising costs for gasoline and other petroleum products in recent months. The agreement includes a 60-day preliminary ceasefire extension and provisions to end the U.S. naval blockade of Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for oil transport.
Since the onset of the conflict in February, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has displaced millions of barrels of crude oil, with nearly 20 million barrels passing through the strait daily before the conflict, representing about 20% of global oil demand. Senior U.S. officials confirmed that President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance signed a memorandum of understanding with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, although the deal requires an in-person signing.
Traders are expressing cautious optimism about the potential reopening of the strait, but concerns remain about the possibility of conflict escalation before the formal signing of the agreement. Experts indicate that even if the strait is reopened, it may take time for maritime traffic to return to normal levels due to safety concerns, particularly regarding the threat of mines in the area.
Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at the Baltic and International Maritime Council, stated that credible assurances must be provided before traffic can resume fully. French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France, the United Kingdom, and 20 other countries will lead efforts to reopen the waterway, which currently has nearly 500 ships, including around 220 tankers, stuck in the Persian Gulf.
In addition to the reopening of the strait, discussions about tolls for vessels passing through are ongoing. Trump stated that the agreement would ensure the strait remains toll-free, while Iranian state media reported that the toll-free status would only last for 60 days. Energy analysts anticipate that tolling will be a significant point of negotiation moving forward.
The war has also impacted oil production in the Gulf, with several producers halting extraction due to storage limitations and damage to facilities. Analysts suggest that restoring production will take time and will depend on the extent of damage and the security situation.
As of June 15, crude prices had dropped to the low $80s, which may lead to a decrease in gasoline prices, which peaked at $4.56 a gallon in late May. Experts predict that if the memorandum of understanding is signed, gasoline prices could decline relatively quickly, although refining capacity issues may affect this timeline. The national average price of gasoline was reported at $4.065 a gallon, with diesel averaging $5.197 a gallon.