The US-Iran de-escalation deal may lead to a return of oil tanker traffic to pre-war levels, but analysts suggest that the global energy trade will undergo significant changes. Goldman Sachs has revised its fourth-quarter Brent oil price forecast from $90 to $80 per barrel, indicating a likely decrease in oil prices. However, uncertainty remains regarding the stability of oil prices, as it may take months to clear trapped tankers and restore damaged production and export facilities. Additionally, there is a need to replenish depleted oil reserves in the US, while China's reserves remain robust.
Despite over 1 billion barrels being removed from the market since February, US and European benchmark crude prices did not surpass the highs seen after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The concept of US 'energy dominance' and the strategic reserves established for such situations have played a role in this stability, alongside the ongoing transition to clean energy.
Long-term changes in energy geopolitics are anticipated, with a shift towards electrification, particularly in Asia. A recent survey indicated that 91% of global executives believe transitioning from fossil fuels to electric alternatives would enhance their energy security. Meghan O’Sullivan, a former senior US energy security official, emphasized the importance of electrification, supply chain diversification, and resilience in future energy strategies.
The Strait of Hormuz's status may also change, as Iran has demonstrated its military capability to disrupt transit. Richard Goldberg, a former National Security Council official, noted that Gulf countries are investing in infrastructure to reduce reliance on Hormuz. The dynamics among Gulf states may shift from cooperation to competition as they seek to offer discounts against one another.
The US's role as a guarantor of global energy security is evolving, with the military's ability to facilitate tanker movement being limited. Trump indicated that he could demand a portion of Gulf countries' revenue for future protection, which may lead Gulf nations to diversify their alliances and infrastructure. The effectiveness of US 'energy dominance' in geopolitical terms remains uncertain until a comprehensive deal with Iran is established.