US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran can now effectively shut down access to the Strait of Hormuz at will, according to three sources familiar with the findings. A US official stated that Iran can only access benefits of the framework agreement if the strait remains open and it adheres to other agreed-upon points. Iran has demonstrated the ability to leverage targeted strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure and potentially deploy Houthi forces to close another critical waterway.
The assessment indicates that Iran's regime has acquired a significant capability to impact the global economy. Despite a framework agreement expected to be signed to facilitate nuclear talks, US intelligence suggests that Iran has proven its ability to restrict access to the strait during the ongoing conflict, and this could occur again.
A source familiar with the assessments remarked that Iran has gained de facto control over the strait, which could be considered a powerful leverage point. The US has engaged in negotiations with Iran to ensure the strait remains open, highlighting Iran's leverage in these discussions.
A senior US official noted that Iran cannot access any benefits from the framework agreement unless the strait remains open and it complies with other conditions. The official did not specify what those benefits are but indicated that the US would reduce its blockade in line with Iran restoring traffic in the strait.
Concerns about the agreement and other risks may lead to reduced traffic through this critical chokepoint for an extended period, according to shipping industry experts. Iran's confidence in its ability to weaponize the strait is partly due to its retained weapons stockpile, including missiles, drones, and fast boats that can disrupt shipping.
There have been discussions about potential allied policing of the strait once it is reopened, but the specifics remain unclear. Additionally, Iran has reportedly been considering using its proxy forces to close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, another vital trade route, if negotiations with the US do not proceed favorably.
The assessments reflect the implications of past US policy decisions and raise questions about Iran's future ability to leverage its position in the global economy. US intelligence agencies continue to evaluate how Iran might use its capabilities in the future, with some officials suggesting that Iran is more likely to take action to close the strait again.