Ukraine may experience a shortage of heavy ammunition due to the withdrawal of contributions from nine out of 18 member nations of a Czech-led supply initiative. Czech President Petr Pavel stated in an interview with the Financial Times that this reduction jeopardizes the supply of large-caliber ammunition to Ukraine. While he did not disclose which countries have ceased their contributions, a Western military official indicated that Germany and some Nordic countries continue to support the effort.
The withdrawal is attributed to the change in leadership in the Czech Republic, with Prime Minister Andrej Babis expressing intentions to prioritize domestic issues over military aid to Ukraine. This shift has led some contributing nations to question the rationale behind their financial support for the initiative.
The Czech-led program, initiated in early 2024, was established in response to increased Russian military activity and a perceived hesitance from the U.S. to supply ammunition. So far, the program has provided Ukraine with 1.5 million artillery rounds in 2024, 1.8 million in 2025, and 500,000 in the current year. The Czech Ministry of Defense has projected that approximately 1 million additional large-caliber rounds will be supplied by the end of the year, based on existing contracts.
Throughout the ongoing conflict, both Russia and Ukraine have expended tens of millions of artillery shells, with Russia maintaining a significant advantage in production capacity. Reports indicate that Russia has been firing between 10,000 to 36,000 shells daily, while Ukraine's output has increased to around 5,000 shells per day. The disparity in ammunition production has been exacerbated by Russia's investments in its defense industry and assistance from North Korea.
Additionally, Ukraine's reliance on a diverse range of munitions has further complicated its artillery supply situation, contributing to a global shortage of TNT due to the high demand for explosives.