Nuclear experts have expressed concerns regarding President Donald Trump’s new framework for an Iran deal, indicating that it may grant Iran excessive control over its uranium stockpile unless inspectors can locate, secure, and verify the material beforehand. The concerns stem from language in the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU), which states that the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile will be resolved through a yet-to-be-negotiated process. The MOU mentions on-site 'downblending' under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervision as a minimum acceptable method for managing the material.
While the MOU does not explicitly state that Iran will maintain a civilian nuclear program, it indicates that discussions regarding enrichment and Iran's 'nuclear needs' will occur in a final agreement. Chuck DeVore, Chief National Initiatives Officer at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, emphasized the importance of unrestricted verification, stating that in-person inspections are crucial.
The MOU has already been signed, but follow-up talks in Switzerland to initiate technical negotiations have been postponed, leaving key nuclear details unresolved as the agreement enters a 60-day negotiation period. Experts warn that IAEA supervision would only be effective if inspectors regain sufficient access to fully account for Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile.
A recent IAEA report highlighted the agency's limited visibility into Iran's declared nuclear program, noting that it has not received information about the status of Iran's nuclear facilities or had access for verification purposes. A senior administration official stated that the MOU requires Iran to reaffirm its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, which they consider a critical step under Iran's new Supreme Leader.
The official mentioned that the U.S. has reached understandings with Iran regarding its uranium stockpile and that the new deal aims to translate these understandings into tangible results, including progress on stockpiles, dismantlement of nuclear sites, an enrichment ban, and inspection access. The official also referred to comments made by Vice President JD Vance, who stated that the deal's benefits depend on Iran adhering to its commitments.
Andrea Stricker, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Nonproliferation Program, highlighted that any credible agreement must start with the recovery and safeguarding of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, ensuring Tehran does not retain control over the material while it is diluted. Experts have noted that Iran's enriched uranium stockpile could potentially provide enough weapons-grade material for approximately 22 nuclear weapons if further enriched.
DeVore cautioned against allowing Iran to restrict access or keep certain sites off-limits, emphasizing that on-site verification is essential. He expressed concern that the minimum level of verification sought by defense officials could become the starting point for negotiations, potentially leading to a final deal that falls short of necessary safeguards. Fox News Digital has reached out to the IAEA for comments regarding its ability to account for Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and the verification issues raised by the reported framework.