The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed the onset of El Niño, a climate pattern that raises global temperatures. Meteorologists predict this could be the strongest El Niño of the century, potentially causing extreme weather events such as severe droughts and heavy rainfall, which may disrupt agricultural production and food security. El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and peaks around December or January.
NOAA's calculations indicate a high likelihood of a 'very strong' El Niño, with average surface temperatures in the Pacific expected to rise by over 2 degrees Celsius. The phenomenon affects various regions differently, leading to droughts in some areas and heavy rainfall in others, both of which can impact key agricultural regions.
The interaction of this year's El Niño with global warming is still being studied. Historical examples show that strong El Niños have previously led to significant droughts and famines, such as those in 1877, which resulted in millions of fatalities. The last El Niño, occurring in 2023-2024, was among the strongest recorded and contributed to record-high temperatures.
This year's El Niño is expected to further challenge agricultural producers already facing higher input costs due to geopolitical tensions, including the Iran war. For instance, India may experience a weaker monsoon, affecting rice yields, while southern Africa could see reduced maize production due to hotter, drier conditions. The southern United States is projected to have wetter conditions, leading to potential flooding.
The exact impacts of this El Niño remain uncertain, but experts suggest that climate change may alter the regions affected by extreme weather, increasing the severity and likelihood of such events.