The global birthrate has been declining across all countries, with various factors contributing to this trend. Some attribute the decline to technology, particularly smartphones and social media, while others point to modern anxieties regarding the future. A long essay in The New York Times by Anna Louie Sussman discusses how today's generation may feel too anxious to commit to having children.
Birth rates have been decreasing in developed countries for several reasons, including lower child mortality rates, increased education for women, higher female labor-force participation, and greater access to contraception. Additionally, as smartphone usage has increased, housing prices have risen, and social interactions have declined, the birth rate continues to fall.
The decline has accelerated beyond predictions; for instance, the United Nations estimated 350,000 births in South Korea for 2023, but the actual number was around 230,000. The total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman in many regions, including North America, South America, Europe, and parts of Asia.
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania, emphasized the importance of fertility rates for future societal structure, noting that 2023 marked the first time the global total fertility rate fell below the replacement rate. He explained that for a population to remain stable, each woman must have an average of 2.1 children. Currently, the U.S. fertility rate is approximately 1.57, indicating a shortfall.
Fernández-Villaverde predicts that the global population will begin to decline around 2055. He also noted that past predictions of overpopulation leading to ecological disaster have not materialized, as global fertility rates have decreased significantly. He suggests that the confidence of public intellectuals in those predictions did not align with the views of professional demographers at the time.
