Comedian Jim Gaffigan humorously remarked on the rarity of big families, suggesting they are becoming less common. However, recent trends indicate a slight increase in the number of births occurring in larger families in the U.S., prompting discussions on whether promoting larger families could help address declining fertility rates.
The U.S. fertility rate has been declining, with the total fertility rate dropping to 1.57 births per woman in 2025, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1. Tim Carney from the American Enterprise Institute noted that the U.S. experienced its lowest birth rate in history last year, a decline of over 25% since 2007. Factors contributing to this trend include a decrease in marriage rates and changes in childbearing patterns.
Some experts suggest that instead of encouraging nonparents to have children, efforts should focus on motivating parents who already have children to expand their families. Daniel Hess and Paul Morland point to Kazakhstan, where the total fertility rate increased from 1.9 in 1999 to over 3.3 in 2021, largely due to growth among big families.
In Kazakhstan, policies supporting large families, such as financial incentives and social benefits, have been implemented. Hess and Morland advocate for similar benefits in the U.S., including tax breaks for families with three or more children. They note that existing child tax credits provide some financial support, but recent expansions have faced challenges.
Despite these discussions, research suggests that financial incentives alone may not significantly impact fertility rates, which are influenced more by relationship dynamics than by the cost of raising children. Catherine Pakaluk, a mother of eight, expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of monetary incentives in influencing family size decisions.
While federal deficits may limit the availability of increased subsidies for large families, the trend of some American parents choosing to have larger families continues to grow. Policymakers are encouraged to consider the motivations behind this trend and explore ways to support families opting for larger households.