In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the invasion of Ukraine was an act of self-defense, warning that NATO could pose a threat to Russia. On June 20, a Ukrainian drone struck an oil refinery in Tyumen, western Siberia, approximately 1,900 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, marking the deepest confirmed Ukrainian strike of the conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the incident, which highlights the changing dynamics of the war.
Previously considered safe, areas in Russia are now experiencing attacks. In addition to the Tyumen strike, drones have targeted facilities in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The Kremlin's response has been to minimize coverage of these events in state media.
Economically, Gazprom's value has significantly decreased, and Russia has begun importing gasoline due to the impact of Ukraine's attacks on its refineries. Fuel rationing has been implemented in various regions, and the government has authorized the production of lower-grade fuel to maintain supply.
Concerns about military manpower persist, as Putin has avoided declaring a new mobilization. Instead, local officials are reportedly encouraging businesses to recruit employees for military contracts. The Kremlin is also increasing financial incentives to attract recruits amid ongoing manpower shortages.
Internationally, allies of Russia, such as Belarus, are reassessing their positions as the war continues. Political and business leaders in the former Soviet states are beginning to reconsider their ties to Moscow, especially as sanctions and economic pressures mount.
The article suggests that while predictions of imminent collapse may be premature, the foundational assumptions of Putin's strategy are weakening, leading to increased vulnerability for Russia. The war, initially intended to secure Russia's borders, has instead brought conflict closer to home.