Recent polls indicate that Democratic candidates are gaining traction in several U.S. congressional districts that previously supported President Donald Trump by significant margins. Internal polling suggests that in Arizona’s second congressional district, Democrat Jonathan Nez is closely competing with Republican incumbent Eli Crane, with Nez at 41% and Crane at 44%, while 9% of voters remain undecided. This district was won by Trump by 15 points in 2024, but current polling shows a 56% disapproval rating for the president among voters there.
In New York’s 21st congressional district, Democratic candidate Blake Gendebien is trailing Republican Anthony Constantino by just one point, with Constantino at 45% and Gendebien at 44%, and 11% undecided. This district was won by Trump by 20 points in the last election. Additionally, a poll from the House Majority PAC shows Democratic candidate Paige Cognetti leading Republican Rob Bresnahan in Pennsylvania’s 8th congressional district, with Cognetti at 47% and Bresnahan at 45%.
Trump's recent campaign activities and endorsements have supported GOP candidates, but his approval ratings may pose challenges for Republicans in the upcoming general election. Earlier this week, Trump’s refusal to sign a bipartisan housing bill created uncertainty for GOP lawmakers who had hoped to leverage the legislation during their campaigns.