A recent Fox News poll suggests that the race to succeed retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst in Iowa is shaping up to be highly competitive. Ernst, who won her last election by 6.5 points in 2020, is being succeeded by either Democrat Josh Turek or Republican Ashley Hinson. Currently, Turek holds a slight lead over Hinson, with 50% of voters supporting him compared to 46% for Hinson, a difference that falls within the poll's margin of error.
The poll indicates that former President Donald Trump's favorability in Iowa has decreased, with 42% of respondents viewing him favorably and 55% unfavorably, marking a significant shift from previous ratings. Among voters who are extremely motivated to vote, Turek leads by 15 points, largely due to higher enthusiasm among Democrats compared to Republicans.
Hinson's net favorability rating is negative at 7 points, while Turek enjoys a positive rating of 18 points. Support for Turek is notably strong among women with college degrees, independents, urban voters, and younger voters. Conversely, Hinson's support is strongest among White evangelical Christians, older men, veterans, and non-college-educated men.
The poll also reveals that 82% of Turek's supporters are certain to vote for him, compared to 72% of Hinson's supporters. Concerns about Hinson's ties to Trump are prevalent, with half of voters expressing worry about her closeness to the former president. In contrast, fewer voters are concerned about Turek's positions being too liberal.
The survey highlights inflation as the most pressing issue for voters, with 39% indicating it will influence their Senate vote. Turek has an advantage among those prioritizing inflation and healthcare, while Hinson leads significantly on immigration issues.
In the gubernatorial race, Democratic nominee Rob Sand currently leads Republican challenger Zach Lahn by 9 points, with Sand benefiting from some crossover support from Hinson's backers. Sand's favorability rating is positive, while Lahn's is slightly negative.