A recent Fox News poll shows that the race to succeed retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst in Iowa is expected to be closely contested in 2026. Ernst won her last election by 6.5 points in 2020, while President Donald Trump carried Iowa by 8 points in 2020 and by 13 points in 2024. The poll indicates that Iowans currently view Trump unfavorably by 13 points, a significant shift from his previous favorable rating.
Democrat Josh Turek currently leads Republican Ashley Hinson by 4 points, with 50% support compared to Hinson's 46%. This lead falls within the poll's margin of error. Among voters who are highly motivated to vote, Turek holds a larger 15-point advantage, driven by higher enthusiasm among Democrats compared to Republicans.
Hinson has a net favorability rating of -7 points, while Turek enjoys a net positive rating of 18 points. Support for Turek is particularly strong among women with college degrees, independents, urban voters, and younger voters. Conversely, Hinson's support is strongest among White evangelical Christians, older men, veterans, and less-educated men.
The poll also reveals that a higher percentage of Turek's supporters are certain about their choice compared to Hinson's supporters. Voters express mixed feelings about Hinson's association with Trump, with half indicating concern over her closeness to him. In contrast, fewer voters are worried about Turek's positions being too liberal.
The poll highlights that inflation is the most pressing issue for 39% of Iowans regarding their Senate vote, followed by healthcare and immigration. Turek leads on issues related to inflation and healthcare, while Hinson has a significant advantage on immigration.
In the race for governor, Democratic nominee Rob Sand leads Republican challenger Zach Lahn by 9 points, benefiting from some crossover support from Hinson's voters. Sand has a favorable rating of +21, while Lahn's ratings are slightly negative. The poll was conducted from June 23-27, 2026, with a sample size of 1,003 Iowa registered voters.