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Analysis of Public Sentiment in Iran Following Funeral of Supreme Leader

The funeral of former Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei drew large crowds in Tehran, but analysts warn that this should not be interpreted as genuine support for the regime. Surveys indicate significant opposition to the Islamic Republic among the Iranian population, with many expressing dissent against its policies and actions. The ongoing protests highlight a disconnect between state-sponsored displays of loyalty and the true sentiments of many Iranians.

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Tens of thousands of people participated in the funeral procession of former Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran, chanting against the United States and Israel while carrying portraits of Khamenei. Analysts caution against interpreting these large crowds as a sign of genuine support for the regime, noting that the Islamic Republic has historically utilized public gatherings to project an image of national unity. Many attendees may be motivated by state patronage networks, including civil servants and those dependent on the regime for financial stability.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij militia play significant roles in maintaining control, linking jobs and personal safety to political loyalty. Despite a population of over 90 million, even a small loyalist base can create the appearance of widespread support. Surveys indicate that public opinion may not align with the regime's image, as a 2024 survey by the Netherlands-based GAMAAN found that approximately 70% of Iranians oppose the continuation of the Islamic Republic. Support for the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution has decreased significantly, with only 11% in favor.

Additional surveys reveal that many Iranians are critical of the regime's policies, including opposition to military rule and compulsory hijab laws. Following recent conflicts, a majority of respondents expressed a desire for Iran to cease calls for the destruction of Israel and showed concern for civilian casualties. While the funeral demonstrated that the regime retains some hard-line supporters, the actions of Iranians protesting against the government suggest a deeper discontent that persists despite state repression.

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Don’t confuse Iran funeral crowds for regime support

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Analysis of Public Sentiment in Iran Following Funeral of Supreme Leader