The Institute for Family Studies (IFS) has released a report indicating that the United States may face a population decline in the coming decades. The report highlights that while Americans express a desire for larger families, with an average aspiration of 2.4 children, the actual fertility rate has fallen below 1.6 children per woman. Lyman Stone, Director of IFS' Pronatalism Initiative, noted that the gap between desired and actual family size is among the widest in modern history. He attributed this discrepancy to delays in marriage and family formation rather than a decline in the desire for children.
Stone explained that individuals who marry earlier are more likely to achieve their family size goals. He emphasized that the decline in birth rates is not primarily linked to medical infertility, but rather to the choice to delay starting families. The median age at first marriage has increased significantly, with men marrying at an average age of 30.8 and women at 28.4, compared to 23.5 and 21.1 in 1975.
The report also identified 'peer culture' as a significant factor influencing fertility. Young Americans with supportive friendships expressed a desire for larger families, with those under 30 wanting an average of 2.8 children compared to 1.7 among those with less supportive social circles.
The IFS report warns that if current trends continue, the U.S. population could peak at 351 million in the 2050s before beginning a steady decline. If fertility rates stabilize, the population might peak at 366 million and start declining in the 2080s. Stone suggested that addressing the decline in birth rates may require policymakers to prioritize family formation, recommending measures such as eliminating marriage penalties in tax and welfare programs and creating financial incentives for families.
Stone concluded by stating that strong families are crucial for the long-term success of the U.S., asserting that family growth is essential for the nation's future stability.