On July 9, 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the global economy has managed to withstand the recent conflict involving Iran better than anticipated. Despite President Trump's declaration that the cease-fire was over and the resumption of military actions against Iran, the IMF projected global GDP growth at 3 percent, a slight decrease from previous forecasts. Global inflation is expected to reach 4.7 percent, primarily due to increased oil and natural gas prices resulting from the conflict. The report noted that countries dependent on energy imports have coped better than expected, aided by tapping into reserves and a boom in artificial intelligence that has benefited equipment exporters like China and South Korea.
The United States, as a net energy exporter, has seen its growth trajectory remain strong, with the IMF expecting it to grow faster in 2026 than in 2025. Although American consumers have faced higher gas prices, the S&P 500 index has risen nearly 9 percent since the onset of the conflict. However, the report also warned that a prolonged conflict could lead to significant challenges for poorer economies reliant on energy imports, potentially resulting in food shortages and increased inflation. The IMF cautioned that renewed geopolitical tensions could further harm growth and exacerbate inflationary pressures, alongside potential social unrest and political instability. President Trump stated that Iran was seeking a deal, although he expressed uncertainty about their willingness to negotiate.