U.S. and Iranian negotiators are reportedly moving toward a temporary framework agreement regarding Iran's nuclear program, with a significant unresolved issue being the fate of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. Iranian officials have stated that retaining enriched uranium is a red line in negotiations, while President Donald Trump has asserted that Iran will not obtain a nuclear weapon and suggested that the U.S. could take the material if necessary.
Nonproliferation experts emphasize that the management of Iran's uranium stockpile is crucial for any agreement to effectively prevent Iran from advancing toward weapons-grade enrichment. Andrea Stricker, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, indicated that retaining any enriched uranium could allow Iran to increase enrichment levels at its discretion.
The urgency of this issue has intensified following U.S. military actions against Iranian nuclear facilities. Experts note that while airstrikes can damage infrastructure, securing and neutralizing the enriched uranium presents a distinct challenge that requires reliable intelligence and international oversight.
Stricker mentioned that the Trump administration is likely to demand either the destruction of the stockpiles within Iran or their removal under international supervision. She highlighted that the best option would be to destroy the stockpile in Iran to avoid complications regarding possession and potential return of the material.
Executing such operations would likely necessitate excavation teams and international nuclear inspectors, particularly in heavily damaged underground facilities. Stricker pointed out that handling enriched uranium requires specialized teams due to its toxic and corrosive nature, although it does not pose the same radiological risks as a nuclear detonation.
Another potential solution could involve transferring the material to international custody, with the International Atomic Energy Agency overseeing its removal. Kelsey Davenport from the Arms Control Association noted that internationally monitored downblending of the uranium may be more feasible than attempting to seize or destroy it within damaged facilities.
The White House has not yet commented on these developments. Iranian officials maintain that they have the right to retain uranium enrichment as part of a civilian nuclear program. Ebrahim Azizi, head of the Iranian parliament’s national security committee, reiterated that maintaining enriched uranium stockpiles is a red line in negotiations.
The ongoing negotiations may lead to a temporary framework agreement, but experts warn that the question of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile could become a pivotal issue in any final deal. Even with diplomatic progress, the challenges of locating, securing, and permanently neutralizing the uranium may persist beyond the signing of any agreement.
