Recent primary elections have revealed a disparity between polling expectations for socialist candidates and actual voter outcomes. Candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) entered several primaries with polls indicating competitive standings against centrist opponents, but results showed significant losses.
For instance, Oliver Larkin, a DSA union organizer, lost his primary to Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) by nearly 30 percentage points, despite earlier polls suggesting a close race. Larkin had claimed on social media that they were in a statistical tie just days before the election.
Moskowitz secured 63.5% of the vote compared to Larkin's 36.5%. He has faced criticism from the far left for his support of Israel. Similarly, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) defeated socialist challenger Elijah Manley in Florida’s 20th Congressional District, receiving 46% of the vote to Manley’s 14%.
Polling inaccuracies have provided centrist Democrats with leverage in their ongoing disputes with the party's socialist faction, although pollsters note that primary elections are often difficult to predict. Kate deGruyter, a senior communications director at the centrist group Third Way, remarked that many polls overestimated support for DSA-affiliated candidates.
Third Way has announced plans to invest $15 million to counter DSA influence leading up to the 2028 election. Marist Institute for Public Opinion Director Lee Miringoff emphasized that primary polling often carries more uncertainty than general election polling due to factors like higher undecided voter rates and late shifts in voter preferences.
Despite these challenges, some left-leaning candidates have succeeded, such as Florida Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon, who won her primary against Alexander Vindman with 56% of the vote. However, this victory has been used to bolster arguments from centrist groups regarding electability.
DeGruyter pointed out that the Democratic Party's focus should be on winning traditionally Republican seats rather than solidifying support in already Democratic areas. She reiterated that Third Way's efforts are aimed at addressing the DSA organization rather than individual candidates. The DSA's platform, which includes proposals like abolishing the Senate and defunding police departments, has been described as counterproductive to the party's goals.
Democratic strategist Stefan Hankin encouraged centrists to engage with their leftist counterparts to foster a more unified party approach, suggesting that both factions need to find common ground to coexist effectively.