<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Sen. <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/darline-graham-nordone/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Darline Graham</a> Nordone’s (R-SC) narrow special election runoff victory is prompting South Carolina political strategists to consider that the early presidential primary state could be competitive in 2028.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Graham Nordone defeated Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) 52.5% to 47.5% on Tuesday in the Republican runoff to permanently replace her late brother in the Senate. She entered the race with the endorsement of President Donald Trump and significant outside spending supporting her campaign.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The contest mirrored the dynamics of the 2024 presidential primary. Trump endorsed Graham Nordone, while former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Governor <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/nikki-haley/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Nikki Haley</a> supported Norman, who had previously endorsed Haley against Trump.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">South Carolina Republican strategist David Wilson stated that Graham Nordone’s single-digit win indicates that the state remains “still competitive” for 2028 GOP candidates. Wilson noted that many South Carolina Republicans “agree with certain MAGA principles,” but do not fully align with the MAGA movement.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">“I don’t think South Carolina is so MAGA-tized yet that someone who is not MAGA doesn’t have a fighting chance,” Wilson told the <em>Washington Examiner</em>. “We saw this back in polling in 2012 and 2014 after the Tea Party came into existence. … Republican primary voters in South Carolina, with only a 5-point spread, still made it clear that there are a group of people who are out there who do not consider themselves to be MAGA.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Another Republican strategist, speaking anonymously, suggested that Graham Nordone’s win was influenced more by the financial resources spent on her campaign than by Trump’s endorsement.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">“Graham Nordone and her allies crushed Norman on the airwaves and in the mailboxes,” the strategist told the <em>Washington Examiner</em>.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">MAGA Inc., Trump’s super PAC, spent over $827,000 on phone calls and text messages encouraging voter turnout for Graham Nordone, while the pro-green energy super PAC Invest in Tomorrow Coalition spent $1 million against Norman after he advocated for the repeal of federal solar and wind tax credits.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Outside groups spent approximately $400,000 in support of Norman, while he contributed roughly $2 million of his own funds to the campaign.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Looking ahead to 2028, the strategist indicated that the results suggest a well-funded candidate could still compete in South Carolina without Trump’s backing, but predicted that the competition would be significantly more intense than the Graham Nordone-Norman race.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">“2028 in South Carolina will be [the] MLB playoffs,” the source said. “[A] 2026 GOP runoff in August was pretty much middle school JV baseball — a bunch of money wasted on not much talent.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">South Carolina Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright remarked that each election is influenced by different issues and it is premature to assess the political environment for the next presidential election.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">“The needs of South Carolina Republican voters and their desires will shift between now and 2028, depending on what happens on a couple different fronts,” Seawright told the <em>Washington Examiner</em>. “I do think last night could be flirtation, but I don’t think it’s definition in terms of what the relationship 2028 would look like.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Seawright highlighted that there were also “independent dynamics” at play in the Senate runoff, including Graham Nordone’s higher name recognition due to her late brother’s long tenure in office and Norman’s challenges from his Washington votes and a failed gubernatorial bid. He noted, however, that a Trump endorsement is not always a guaranteed advantage in South Carolina.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Earlier this year, South Carolina state Attorney General Alan Wilson performed better in the first round of the GOP gubernatorial primary than Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. Both candidates advanced to the runoff, where Trump co-endorsed Wilson, who won by 37 percentage points.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Seawright also mentioned that Norman’s supporters booed during his concession speech when Trump’s endorsement of Graham Nordone was referenced.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Despite indications that South Carolina could be competitive in 2028, Vice President JD Vance would enter the GOP primary contest with a significant lead. Vance averages 40% support in hypothetical 2028 Republican primary polls, compared to Secretary of State <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/marco-rubio/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Marco Rubio</a>’s 23% and <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/donald-trump-jr/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Donald Trump Jr.’s</a> 12%.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Republican strategist Matt Gorman, who previously worked for Sen. <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/tim-scott/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Tim Scott</a> (R-SC), stated that “the only way anyone can even try to beat Vance is head to head.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">“And even then it’s an uphill challenge,” Gorman told the <em>Washington Examiner</em>. “But if there’s three or more people competing in [South Carolina] for votes, it’s Vance’s to lose.”</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Wilson cautioned against assuming that Vance’s early advantage would automatically lead to victory in South Carolina. He argued that some of his support is derived from his status as Trump’s choice, but that does not ensure a decisive win, as demonstrated by the Graham Nordone results.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">“Vance holds an advantage right now, but it’s not a guarantee that he becomes the nominee simply because he has the advantage in his hand right now,” he said. “People [who] come to South Carolina have to face a voting population that says, ‘Tell me more than what you said to <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/iowa/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Iowa</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/tag/new-hampshire/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">New Hampshire</a>. Prove your worth here.’”</p>