It has been six months since the United States and Israel conducted military operations against Iran, aiming to reshape the Middle East. The region has indeed changed, but not in the anticipated manner. The Islamic Republic has endured the assassination of its top leaders and extensive bombing campaigns, gaining leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf Arab nations are expressing concerns about gaps in the American security framework they have depended on for decades and are exploring alternative security options.
Israel has engaged in military actions against its adversaries without achieving decisive victories, and after nearly three years of conflict in Gaza and new territorial acquisitions, it faces a potential rift with the United States, its primary ally. Efforts to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, a long-standing goal for both the U.S. and Israel, have diminished.
When the U.S. and Israel initiated the attack on February 28, they aimed to overthrow Iran's clerical leadership and establish a pro-Western government. However, the outcome has resulted in a more entrenched and radical regime, according to Barbara Leaf, a former ambassador and assistant secretary of state for the Middle East during the Biden administration. She stated, "That is going to be exceptionally difficult to deal with, to say the least," noting Iran's increased confidence in its ability to not only survive but also reshape the regional landscape.
Prior to the attack, Iran appeared vulnerable, with its currency plummeting and significant anti-government protests occurring, which were violently suppressed in January, resulting in thousands of deaths. The U.S. and Israel had previously targeted its military and nuclear facilities during a 12-day conflict the summer before, and Iran's militant allies faced setbacks following Hamas' attack from Gaza on October 7, 2023.
However, following the initial strikes by the U.S. and Israel, Iran's leadership was quickly replaced, and its citizens, seeking shelter from the conflict, did not respond to calls for uprising from the attackers. Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade route for oil and gas, and launched attacks on Gulf nations hosting U.S. troops, impacting the global economy. U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a ceasefire in April and signed a deal with Iran in June, which subsequently collapsed weeks later.
Iran is now focused on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz to deter future attacks and secure concessions, while refusing to compromise on its disputed nuclear program. This strategy poses risks, particularly as the U.S. intensifies its blockade and imposes new sanctions on Iran's already struggling economy. Yoel Guzansky, an expert on Iran and the Gulf at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, remarked, "Iran has demonstrated that Hormuz gives it significant leverage, but prolonged disruption also hurts its neighbors, China, and the global economy, while encouraging alternatives to the strait."
For decades, the U.S. has committed to protecting Gulf oil exporters from external threats, utilizing a network of military bases throughout the region. This arrangement has helped stabilize global energy markets and deter aggression from Iraq and Iran, contributing to the prosperity of Gulf nations. However, this security framework is now under unprecedented strain.
Iran has retaliated against Israel and targeted Gulf nations that sought to remain neutral in the conflict. It has attacked U.S. bases and critical energy infrastructure, stretching air defenses and depleting American supplies of advanced interceptors. In response to assaults on its civilian infrastructure, Iran has targeted desalination plants in neighboring countries, raising concerns about potential catastrophic impacts on water and electricity supplies.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Gulf expert at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, noted, "The fact that the war began without a clear political objective and against the advice of key regional partners, and that there has not been clear evidence of a Plan B once the initial attacks failed to dislodge the Iranian regime, is likely to undermine confidence in the U.S. across the region and may take some time to repair." Last month, Saudi Arabia entered into a new defense agreement with Pakistan and Turkey, indicating that traditional U.S. allies may seek new security arrangements, although their options remain limited.
Ulrichsen stated, "The dilemma facing Gulf states is there is no viable alternative to the full range of defense and security networks with the U.S." Meanwhile, Israel has faced retaliatory missile strikes from Hezbollah, leading to heavy airstrikes and a ground invasion in southern Lebanon. While Israel has achieved tactical successes, it risks increased international isolation, facing accusations of genocide in Gaza, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been indicted on corruption charges.