Icelanders are participating in a referendum to determine whether to resume discussions on joining the European Union, 13 years after negotiations were halted. The latest opinion poll indicates that the No campaign leads with 51.6%, although an earlier poll had shown the Yes campaign ahead. Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir's centre-left government had planned to hold a referendum, but international events prompted an earlier vote. The debate centers on concerns regarding Iceland's fishing industry and sovereignty rather than security issues related to NATO membership. Voting is scheduled from 09:00 to 22:00 GMT on Saturday, with results expected early Sunday morning.
Iceland's population is under 400,000, and over 20% of voters had already participated in early voting prior to Saturday, according to Iceland's public broadcaster RUV. The ballot question asks: "Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?" Although Iceland is part of the EU's single market and Schengen area through the European Economic Area, full EU membership would involve joining the customs union and adopting the euro.
Iceland's application to join the EU was progressing when talks were paused in 2013, and European Commission officials have stated that negotiations could be completed within one to two years. Of the 35 chapters of discussions covering various topics, 27 have commenced, and 11 are provisionally complete. A Yes vote would not finalize EU membership but would support the initiation of an accession agreement, which would require approval through a second referendum and parliamentary consent, along with constitutional amendments. The EU's 27 member states would also need to approve the agreement.
The Yes campaign group, "Yes to See," advocates for exploring potential agreements to provide voters with comprehensive information before making a final decision. Conversely, a No vote would not eliminate the possibility of future negotiations. Sovereignty remains a significant issue in the pre-referendum debate, as Iceland gained independence from Denmark in 1944, and its fishing and marine sectors account for nearly 40% of exports. The No campaign expresses concerns about losing control over Iceland's fishing grounds under the EU's Common Fisheries Policy, pledging to maintain exclusive rights to the country's waters. While Brussels has suggested that Iceland might receive exemptions, this remains a major hurdle to any agreement.
Many Icelanders recall the Cod Wars with the UK in the 1970s, which Iceland won, and fishing has historically been a contentious issue in EU accession discussions. Following the 2008 financial crisis and the collapse of Iceland's banking system, Reykjavik initiated EU accession talks in 2009, which were halted in 2013. Currently, Iceland is among Europe's wealthiest nations, with a GDP per capita ranking fifth globally. However, interest rates are high at 8%, and inflation has reached 5.6%. Proponents of EU membership argue that economic benefits could help reduce these rates.
Despite being a NATO founding member, Iceland has no military and relies on allies for defense. A bilateral defense agreement with the US has been in place since 1951, and the No campaign asserts that Iceland's security relies on NATO and the US, suggesting that EU membership would not replace this arrangement. Iceland has supported Ukraine amid Russia's invasion and has expressed concern over increased Russian military activity near the island. Additionally, there are worries about US President Donald Trump's interest in Greenland, which he has mistakenly associated with Iceland.
This year, the EU and Iceland established a security and defense partnership, with EU officials stating that the EU provides an anchor in a community of values, prosperity, and security. Prior to the referendum, a televised debate featured Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir leading the Yes campaign, while the No campaign was led by Guðrún Hafsteinsdóttir, chair of the opposition Independence Party. Kristrún emphasized Iceland's existing integration with the EU and described membership as a significant risk-reduction step. She clarified that a Yes vote would not guarantee EU membership, and a No vote would be respected. Guðrún argued that the vote concerns whether Icelanders wish to transfer decision-making powers regarding fisheries, agriculture, and natural resources to Brussels.
While geopolitical factors influenced the government's decision to pursue EU talks, they have received limited attention during the campaign. Hallgrimur Oddsson, director of the EU-Iceland think tank European Currents, noted that these issues are not as prominent in discussions as one might expect. On Saturday, Iceland will vote on the potential resumption of EU membership talks amidst ongoing economic and geopolitical tensions.