Iceland's Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir stated that the issue of EU membership would not be revisited while her government remains in power. Iceland has voted against resuming talks on joining the European Union, 13 years after they were initially halted. According to public broadcaster RUV, 52.8% of the more than 225,000 voters rejected the government's proposal, while 47.2% supported it, with a margin of approximately 12,600 votes.
Prime Minister Frostadóttir's centre-left government had promised to hold a referendum by 2027 but expedited it due to international tensions, including threats from US President Donald Trump regarding Greenland. The debate in Iceland, a nation of nearly 400,000, focused more on the fishing industry rather than security concerns. RUV reported that voter turnout was 82.5%, the highest in any Icelandic election since 2009, with around 270,000 eligible voters.
Iceland is already part of the EU's single market and Schengen border-free zone, but full EU membership would involve joining the customs union and potentially the eurozone. Iceland began its application to join the EU in 2009 following the 2008 financial crisis and the collapse of its banking system. The application was advanced when a eurosceptic government took power in 2013, putting talks on hold.
Fishing rights remain a significant barrier to Iceland's EU accession, as many No voters expressed concerns about losing control over lucrative fishing grounds under EU policies. Eirikur Bergmann, a professor of politics at Bifröst University, noted that the No side effectively appealed to Iceland's national identity, emphasizing independence following a long struggle against Denmark.
In contrast, the Yes campaign was described as overly technical and lacking in emotional appeal. After casting her ballot, Prime Minister Frostadóttir remarked that the referendum sparked discussions about Iceland's global position. She confirmed that the issue of EU membership would not be revisited during her administration.
One of her ministers downplayed the result as a setback, highlighting the high voter turnout. Voting patterns revealed a geographical divide, with Reykjavík supporting EU accession talks while rural areas opposed them. The referendum question asked whether Iceland should resume accession negotiations with the EU. A Yes vote would not have finalized EU membership but would have initiated an accession agreement requiring approval in a second referendum.
Although the No vote does not eliminate the possibility of future talks, economic concerns were central to the campaigns, with security issues also considered. Iceland, a founding member of NATO, has no military and relies on allies for defense. EU membership would have provided access to the bloc's joint defense infrastructure. Iceland has supported Ukraine amid Russia's invasion and expressed concerns over increased Russian maritime activity near the island. Trump's interest in Greenland has also raised recent tensions.
Following the referendum, Foreign Minister Katrín Gunnarsdóttir stated intentions to strengthen defense relations with other countries. However, Bergmann indicated that the debate remained focused on domestic issues, with global events having little impact. Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the European think tank Bruegel, commented that the EU has not effectively promoted itself as a security actor in the Arctic, calling the result a missed opportunity for both Iceland and the EU. An unnamed EU diplomat described the outcome as a setback for Brussels, emphasizing that fishing rights and independence were decisive factors. The No camp's victory was celebrated by eurosceptics, including Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and Marine Le Pen of France's National Rally, who highlighted the importance of maintaining independence.