PHOENIX (AP) — On the outskirts of Phoenix, a small town reliant on the Colorado River has capped growth, revived old wells, and struck water deals. However, Cave Creek Mayor Robert Morris expressed concerns that these measures may not be sufficient for the future. A recent federal plan aimed at addressing the ongoing crisis in the river basin is expected to exacerbate the situation.
Cave Creek sources nearly all of its water from the Colorado River, which serves 40 million people in the western United States and has been declining due to climate change, increased demand, and overuse. The town has already implemented water cuts this year and anticipates further reductions under the new federal plan.
Morris compared the situation to preparing for a meteor strike, stating, "You can see it coming, but you can't get out of the way and you don't know what the damage is going to be."
This uncertainty affects seven U.S. states, tribal nations, and Mexico. Farmers are evaluating which crops to invest in, while Phoenix may face a loss of municipal and industrial water for the first time, potentially relying on backup supplies. Residents could also experience increased water costs.
Recently, Nevada filed a lawsuit against the Interior Department and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, arguing that basic needs in the Las Vegas region will not be met if the area has to absorb planned reductions of up to 70% of its Colorado River water over the next decade. The Bureau of Reclamation stated it does not comment on ongoing litigation.
Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources, noted that the uncertainty is likely to worsen. In the western United States, water is primarily stored in reservoirs, aquifers, and snowpacks. However, a record snow drought has resulted in significantly less water available to recharge these sources.
The two largest reservoirs in the country, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, are indicators of the Colorado River system's health and both reached record lows this month. Eight other reservoirs operated by the Bureau of Reclamation have also recorded their lowest levels in at least 30 years, including Elephant Butte Lake in New Mexico, which is critical for supplying water for crops in southern New Mexico, Texas, and Mexico. The Green Mountain Reservoir serves western Colorado, while the Guernsey Reservoir in Wyoming provides water to farmers in eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska.
Under the Bureau of Reclamation's plan, California, Nevada, and Arizona are set to collectively reduce water use by 1.25 million acre-feet (approximately 1.54 billion cubic meters) annually over the next two years, with the possibility of larger cuts depending on conditions. Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico are not currently required to make cuts but may choose to do so voluntarily.
While El Niño may bring increased moisture to the northern Rockies and the Southwest in the coming months, it is not expected to reverse decades of drought. David Mocko, a senior research scientist who authored a recent U.S. Drought Monitor map, stated, "Drought is a slow-moving phenomenon and it can take some time to come into it and also come out of it."
John Boelts, a farmer in Yuma, Arizona, which produces about 90% of North America's winter leafy greens, noted that while farmers there have high-priority rights and may avoid cuts to their Colorado River supply over the next two years, the uncertainty makes long-term planning difficult.
Ray Martinez, who grows alfalfa on a reservation home to the Colorado River Indian Tribes, expressed concerns about having enough water to complete the growing season. He mentioned that he has left some fields unplanted for years to support Lake Mead and warned that continued drops in the reservoir would further limit surface water availability.
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