Rebel fighters in Myanmar are losing key towns as conscription, air strikes, and support from China bolster the military. The rebel fighters who abandoned Falam in April stated they surrendered the border town near India only after running out of ammunition. They faced a six-month assault by Myanmar’s military, which included hundreds of air strikes and a ground attack by approximately 1,000 troops. The fall of Falam, which had been under opposition control for a year, marked a strategic victory for the military, as it is home to the only airport in Chin State and controls a trade route to the Indian border.
Within weeks, three more towns in Chin fell, and by late May, the military claimed control of the entire northern part of the state. Salai William Chin, a member of the rebel Chin Brotherhood, remarked, “Falam taught us an important lesson. Capturing a town and holding it are two very different challenges.” He noted that maintaining control requires manpower, logistics, administration, civilian protection, and resilience against repeated attacks, particularly from the air.
This retreat is part of a broader reversal across Myanmar. The opposition, a coalition of militias and ethnic armed organizations fighting the military that seized power in a 2021 coup, has been weakened. Their gains in 2023 and 2024, which saw coordinated offensives reclaiming dozens of towns from the military, have been replaced by a steady withdrawal from urban centers they had captured.
Analysts attribute this shift to several factors: a mass conscription drive that has replenished the military’s ranks with tens of thousands of troops, a devastating air campaign that has resulted in hundreds of civilian deaths, and support from China, which has facilitated ceasefires between the military and some ethnic armed groups while limiting weapons supplies to others.
The conflict, which began after a military coup in February 2021, has now entered its fifth year. It was sparked by a violent crackdown on unarmed protesters, leading young people to take up arms and form militias known as the People’s Defence Forces (PDF). These groups were supported by powerful ethnic organizations that have sought autonomy since Myanmar's founding in 1948.
According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project, deaths in the conflict have surpassed 100,000, while the United Nations reports that 3.9 million people have been displaced, with an estimated one in three requiring humanitarian assistance.
Earlier this year, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who led the 2021 coup, oversaw tightly controlled elections, barring major opposition parties from participating and resulting in boycotts across much of the country. He was sworn in as president in April, completing his transition from commander-in-chief to head of a nominally civilian government in Naypyidaw.
Min Aung Hlaing has expressed a desire for peace talks with armed opponents, including those in Chin. The military has initiated new operations this year in Chin, Kachin, Kayin, and Rakhine States, and according to ISP-Myanmar, an independent think tank, it has retaken 22 of the 101 towns lost after the coup, which represents 9 percent of the lost territory. These areas are strategically significant, including key trade corridors linking border regions to central Myanmar, where the military's main bases are located.
The recapture of these towns has disrupted the economic and logistical capabilities of many resistance groups, as noted by Su Mon, an analyst at ACLED. While the military has not fully restored its administration in these areas, the victories have hindered resistance coordination, pushing opposition groups away from large-scale coordinated offensives toward defensive guerrilla warfare.
Despite these gains, the military is unlikely to achieve decisive victories against the opposition, according to analysts, who warn that Myanmar faces a protracted war of attrition in the coming months. The military has celebrated its battlefield successes. Speaking in Bangkok, Min Aung Hlaing stated that Myanmar is “on the path of democracy and heading towards a better future,” while state media has published images of what it describes as victorious troops returning from operations.
Anthony Davis, a security analyst based in Bangkok, noted that mass conscription and Chinese support have been crucial for the military. Since 2024, close to 150,000 troops have been added to its combat ranks through conscription, many of whom are inadequately trained but numerous enough to advance.
Chinese pressure has also led two significant opposition forces, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, to withdraw from the conflict, allowing the military to redeploy troops. Beijing has also urged the United Wa State Army, one of Myanmar’s strongest ethnic armed groups, to cease weapon sales to opposition groups, contributing to nationwide ammunition shortages.
“Unchallenged airpower has provided the military with a crucial advantage,” Davis stated, aiding in troop resupply and attacks against opposition forces. The rapid proliferation of drone technology for both surveillance and strike roles, along with improved battlefield coordination, has enhanced the military’s capabilities.
The air campaign has had a severe impact on civilians. The Myanmar Internet Project reported 520 air strikes from April through June, affecting 87 townships and resulting in at least 314 civilian deaths, including 41 children. Chin State experienced the highest number of strikes, with 122, followed by Sagaing with 101 and Rakhine with 98.
Phil Robertson, director of Asia Human Rights and Labour Advocates, stated that the resistance's inability to counter the military’s air superiority has diminished morale among opposition forces. “Air attacks demoralize PDFs and other resistance troops, and scatter civilians who have supported the rebels,” he said.
Despite these challenges, anti-military forces maintain that the war is not lost. Thinzar Shunlei Yi, an activist in exile, emphasized that opposition networks continue to train organizers and build support. “Even in the face of mass murder, in the face of massive violations, we have that courage and integrity that we resist, and we reject,” she stated. “Myanmar people keep up that spirit, and we will keep on going.”
In Chin, Salai William Chin expressed determination. “We do have further plans, but it is still too early to speak publicly about them,” he said. “I would not say that airpower has permanently decided the battlefield. It remains a serious challenge, but warfare continues to evolve, and resistance forces also continue to learn and adapt.” He added that the opposition’s success should not be measured solely by the ability to permanently hold every town, noting that where the military has a significant advantage, mobile warfare may sometimes be more effective. “The important thing is to preserve our forces, protect civilians and maintain our ability to continue the struggle,” he concluded.