<p class="wp-block-paragraph">On Sunday, voters in the state of Saxony-Anhalt in East-Central Germany will go to the polls to elect a new government. Polling indicates that this election could yield an unprecedented outcome in postwar Germany, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) potentially approaching or achieving a majority. This outcome may suggest that Germany's efforts to contain the far-right and prevent them from gaining power may not be effective.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The trajectory of Saxony-Anhalt is notable. In the 2021 state election, the AfD received 20.8% of the vote, finishing second to the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which garnered 37.1%. Current polling places the AfD at approximately 41-42%, nearly double its previous result, while the CDU is projected to receive around 22-24%. The far-left party Die Linke is in third place, with about 13%. The existing governing coalition of CDU, the Social Democrats, and the Free Democrats is anticipated to fall short of the seats required to maintain power. If current polling trends persist, the AfD could win the most votes by a significant margin, coming close to an outright majority.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Germany's postwar governing system has relied on a principle known as the “Brandmauer,” or firewall, where mainstream parties refuse to form governing coalitions with parties deemed extremist.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In May 2025, Germany’s domestic intelligence service classified the AfD as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization. The party subsequently sued, leading the agency to temporarily pause this classification. A court later upheld the pause but also determined that some of the AfD’s positions were “unmistakably unconstitutional.” At the federal level, this designation is currently on hold pending litigation.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">However, in five states, including Saxony-Anhalt, courts have upheld the extremist classification for the state-level AfD branches. The party poised for a potentially historic result on Sunday is thus one whose regional chapter is legally recognized as extremist.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The firewall has been tested at the local level, but it remains unclear what would occur if voters grant the far-right an outright majority. A result in Saxony-Anhalt allowing the AfD to govern without a coalition partner would render the firewall ineffective, as the willingness of other parties to collaborate would no longer be relevant. Even if this scenario is unlikely, it is significant to consider, as it could signify a new phase for German democracy.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Supporters of the AfD characterize the party's rise not as a sign of increasing extremism but as a response to federal migration policy, opposition to European Union overreach, and a challenge to the political establishment. Critics argue that the scrutiny the party faces regarding its rhetoric and associations is indicative of its extremism. This debate is occurring across Germany, not limited to this state.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Despite the current high levels of support for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt, polling results should be approached with caution. Surveys conducted in the weeks leading up to an election can change, as evidenced by the CDU's unexpected surge in the 2021 race.</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Regardless of the final outcome, the extent of the AfD's polling lead in Saxony-Anhalt is noteworthy. While it may be a small state by population, it could soon provide insight into the question Germany has sought to avoid: what happens when the firewall encounters a voting majority?</p>
<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>Rachel Rizzo is a senior fellow in the Strategic Studies Programme, Observer Research Foundation</em>.</p>