People aged 65 and older now outnumber children ages 5 and younger worldwide for the first time in recorded history, according to a report by the U.S. Census Bureau. This demographic shift is attributed to a global decline in fertility rates and increased longevity, leading to a projected demographic inversion that is expected to continue for decades.
The report highlights that over 71% of the world's population lived in countries with fertility rates at or below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 births per woman in 2023, an increase from 45% in 2013. The population of individuals aged 65 and older is projected to grow from 852 million in 2025 to 2 billion by 2060, accounting for about 55% of all net global population growth during that period. The world's total population is expected to rise from 8.13 billion to 10.23 billion by 2060.
The trend of low birth rates is not limited to wealthy countries. China and India, the two most populous countries, now have fertility rates below the replacement level. Other populous countries like Bangladesh, Mexico, and Vietnam have also fallen below this threshold since 2013.
In countries experiencing low birth rates, the report describes a "fertility trap," where smaller younger generations follow larger older ones, leading to an accelerated aging of the population. This shift presents challenges for pensions, health systems, and long-term care, as there will be fewer potential workers and caregivers to support the growing older population.
In the U.S., the country ranked as the 48th oldest out of 227 nations in 2025, with 18.9% of its population aged 65 or older. By 2060, this share is projected to rise to 23.4%, but the U.S. is expected to fall to 110th in global aging rank as other countries age more rapidly.
While Europe remains the oldest region, Asia's 65+ population is projected to surge from 487 million to 1.24 billion from 2025 to 2060, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the global increase. Africa, while the youngest region, is expected to see its older population more than quadruple from 60 million to 249 million by 2060, surpassing Europe's 214 million.
The report suggests that a rising percentage of seniors is not necessarily negative. Longer life spans reflect significant public health achievements, and older individuals are less likely to commit crimes and can contribute to the workforce and community through caregiving and volunteering. The demographic shift may prompt societies to view aging as an economic asset rather than merely a cost, with potential benefits from preventive health measures, longer working lives, and age-friendly jobs.