A study published in JAMA Network Open indicates that traffic deaths in the United States rose by approximately 15% on days when major albums, such as Taylor Swift's "Midnights" and Bad Bunny's "Un Verano Sin Ti," were released. Researchers analyzed 233,809 traffic deaths from 2017 to 2022, comparing the 10 largest album release days to the surrounding days. The increase was most pronounced among younger drivers, male drivers, and solo drivers, particularly on clear, dry days with sober drivers. The researchers suggest that smartphone-related distractions may explain the rise, although they could not definitively link streaming to individual crashes.
The study found that the 15% increase in traffic deaths corresponded to an estimated 18 additional fatalities on an average album release day. These days did not coincide with unusual weather or holidays, indicating that the album releases themselves were a significant factor. The research team from Harvard Medical School noted that studying distracted driving is challenging, as ethical constraints prevent them from distracting drivers in real-world settings. They used album release dates, which are planned in advance and unrelated to traffic conditions, as a natural experiment to assess the impact on road safety.
On album release days, streaming volume increased from about 86 million daily streams to approximately 123 million, a 43% rise. The number of traffic deaths rose from about 121 on surrounding days to about 139 on release days. Simulation tests indicated that such a significant effect was unlikely to occur by chance. The researchers also compared release-day Fridays against surrounding Fridays and found elevated death rates, ruling out the possibility that the timing was merely coincidental.
Younger drivers, particularly those under 40, experienced a more significant increase in fatalities compared to older drivers. Male drivers were more affected than female drivers, aligning with streaming habits, as 87% of US residents aged 12 to 34 streamed music monthly, compared to 52% of those aged 55 and older. Crashes involving only the driver showed a stronger correlation with the spike in deaths than those with passengers, as passengers can assist with phone use.
The spike in fatalities was more pronounced among sober drivers and during clear weather, suggesting that distraction rather than alcohol or poor road conditions was the primary factor. Vehicles manufactured in 2016 or later with infotainment systems showed a larger increase in fatalities on release days, indicating that dashboard controls may not mitigate the risks associated with phone use while driving.
Traffic deaths in the US have been increasing despite advancements in car safety technology. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reported that 8% of fatal crashes in 2022 were distraction-affected, a figure that may underrepresent the issue due to the difficulty in identifying distractions post-accident. While the study does not establish a direct link between streaming music and specific crashes, it highlights a correlation between major album release days and an increase in traffic fatalities.