From Moscow to Plesetsk, Ukraine appears to be targeting infrastructure that supports Russia’s military operations from space.
Kyiv, Ukraine – Russian Aerospace Forces (RAF) chief Aleksandr Chayko narrowly survived an explosion that resulted in the death of his son-in-law. Chayko, who turned 55 in late July, was reportedly celebrating his birthday on August 1 at a restaurant in central Moscow when an unidentified woman attempted to enter carrying a homemade bomb. Security personnel stopped her, but the explosive detonated, killing at least five individuals.
The Kremlin has not confirmed the number of casualties but has attributed the attack to the “bloody tentacles” of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government. Chayko has played a significant role in Russia’s military actions, including the intervention in Syria and leading forces near Kyiv in early 2022. In May, President Vladimir Putin appointed him as commander-in-chief of the RAF, which oversees the military aspects of Russia’s space program.
The RAF’s satellites and ground facilities are utilized for intelligence gathering, navigation, and coordinating ground troops, drone, and missile operations. These facilities are primarily located in western Russia, and new long-range Ukrainian drones and missiles are capable of reaching them.
Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher at Germany’s University of Bremen, stated, “Key factories are few, and they all are within the reach of Ukrainian missiles.” He noted that attacks on these facilities could lead to significant issues for Russia’s space program, including civilian and international initiatives.
In late June, Ukrainian drones targeted a major space communications center in Dubna, near Moscow, which manages reconnaissance satellites and military data. The strike damaged a 32-meter (105-foot) satellite antenna and other technical infrastructure. Zelenskyy remarked on June 30 that Ukraine's long-range sanctions had reached the Dubna center. Russian authorities reported damage to an unspecified building in Dubna and the death of a six-month-old baby.
Ukrainian drones have also attacked three smaller space communication centers in western Russia and annexed Crimea. Anatoly Zak, a U.S.-based expert on the Russian space program, emphasized the complexity of transferring functions from these centers due to their management of geostationary satellites tied to specific locations.
As of now, there are no indications that satellites have lost orbit or become unmanageable, but Zak suggested there are likely serious communication issues occurring behind the scenes.
On August 23, swarms of Ukrainian drones flew over 1,800 kilometers (1,120 miles) to reach Russia’s Arkhangelsk region. Regional authorities reported that around 40 drones were intercepted, but at least two reached the vicinity of Plesetsk, a military cosmodrome and launchpad for intercontinental ballistic missiles. No damage was reported, and the following day, Roscosmos, the state space corporation, announced a successful rocket launch with unspecified military satellites.
The timing of the Ukrainian attacks has been strategic, aimed at disrupting launches during critical moments. Dmitry Bakanov, head of Roscosmos, informed Putin in April that Ukrainian forces had attempted to prevent a launch. Pavel Luzin, an analyst with the Jamestown Foundation, noted that at least a dozen drones would be needed to damage Plesetsk’s launch infrastructure.
The military satellites launched from Plesetsk are part of the Rassvet (Dawn) satellite fleet, which Russia claims is designed to compete with Elon Musk’s SpaceX Starlink satellite modems.
The R-7 rocket, originally developed for military purposes, has been repurposed for satellite launches, with the Soyuz booster rockets being a direct descendant of this technology. The Progress Rocket and Space Centre in Samara is the sole production site for Soyuz rockets, and it was struck by Ukrainian missiles on August 15, causing a fire and minor damage. Luzin stated that while the damage was not critical, if it were to become so, Russia would face challenges in manufacturing Soyuz rockets, although existing stockpiles could last for a year.
Historically, the Soviet Union emphasized the peaceful exploration of space while maintaining a military component. The USSR achieved numerous milestones, including sending the first dog, man, and woman into space and launching the first space station.
Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine severed ties with Russian aerospace facilities, disrupting long-standing supply chains for rocket components. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further isolated its civilian space program, leading to the suspension of various international collaborations.
Despite these setbacks, NASA and Roscosmos continue to collaborate on the International Space Station, while Russia seeks new partnerships with China and other non-Western nations for future projects.