The UK government is expected to approve the Jackdaw gas field project off the coast of Aberdeen, according to sources reported by the BBC. Approval could be granted as early as mid-September, just before Parliament's break for party conference season. The gas field was initially approved by the previous Conservative government in 2022 but faced delays due to a legal ruling from a Scottish court, which found that environmental groups had successfully argued that the consent was granted without fully considering the climate impact.
Jackdaw's owner claims the project will supply up to 6% of the UK's gas demand at peak production, while environmental groups contest that it will only meet 2%. Legal challenges were launched by campaigners following the approval of Jackdaw in 2022 and the Rosebank oil field in 2023. The Court of Session in Edinburgh ruled that both projects had been unlawfully approved due to the government's failure to consider the climate impact of burning oil and gas extracted from these sites. A judge mandated that more detailed climate assessments be published, with updated estimates released for consultation in July.
Adura, a joint venture between Shell and Equinor, operates both Jackdaw and Rosebank. Adura estimates that Jackdaw could produce 35.8 million tonnes of carbon over its 11-year lifetime, which would equate to 90% of Scotland's emissions for 2023. However, a more likely estimate is about 23.6 million tonnes, or 60% of the 2023 figure. Environmentalists argue that further drilling would hinder efforts to reduce carbon emissions, especially as extreme weather events impact populations globally. They advocate for a transition to greener technologies to better support job growth.
Industry representatives argue that production at these sites would create jobs and enhance the UK's energy security amid overseas conflicts that threaten supply. They assert that Jackdaw's output is essential for extending the life of existing North Sea infrastructure, including Shearwater, which processes hydrocarbons for coastal refineries.
If approved in September, Jackdaw could begin delivering gas to UK homes by winter, as construction is reportedly 99% complete. A public consultation regarding Jackdaw and Rosebank concluded in August, with the decision now pending from Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh. Energy Minister Kate White indicated that separate decisions would be made for the two sites but did not provide a timeline for the announcement.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has stated that a pragmatic approach is necessary regarding domestic oil and gas use, acknowledging that reliance on these resources will continue for some time. Unlike North Sea oil, which is primarily exported, most North Sea gas is used domestically in the UK. The UK relies heavily on gas imports, with over 60% sourced from Norway and the United States.
Wholesale natural gas prices have surged this year due to the conflict in Iran, reaching a three-year high and raising concerns about energy security. Gas storage levels in Europe are lower than usual for this time of year, as countries delayed stockpiling over the summer. This situation may force countries to purchase gas now or face higher prices in winter.
While prices are set internationally, approval for Jackdaw would not necessarily lower costs for domestic consumers. However, domestic gas extraction is believed to produce lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to liquefying, shipping, and regasifying imported liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Tessa Khan, executive director of environmental group Uplift, which initiated the legal challenge, stated that further North Sea drilling would not reduce energy bills and would not significantly impact the UK's energy supply. She emphasized the need for the Prime Minister to heed scientific warnings regarding climate change and consider the real-world impacts of extreme weather events.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has refrained from commenting on speculation but noted that the North Sea remains a vital national asset. Any decisions will consider all relevant evidence, including environmental assessments and public feedback from the consultation process.